Intermediate Wave 3 will be big, bad, and bloody. Anyone long for the next few weeks... may God have mercy on your soul.
Things to pay attention to around us:
1.) Russia/Ukraine tensions: The world is anticipating the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now this is alarming, but is it really that big of a deal? History shows that Russia likes to ruffle international feathers during democratic presidencies (Carter/ Afghanistan 1979, Crimea/Obama 2015, (current) Biden/Ukraine 2022). Aside from politics, let's look at the history of Ukraine. Ukraine, for most of it's history, was apart of Russia. It wasn't until 1991 that they "succeeded" from the USSR and became a sovereign state. Since then, Russia is no longer the Soviet Union and Putin is seemingly on a path to reclaim what was once his (or Russia's). Ukraine is half Russian speaking anyway, so I'm sure that half could care less to be back under the Russian umbrella. I expect Russia will get what back they deem they're "property" with very little international intervention. So for those crying out WW3, cool your jets and understand the Crimean conflict gave us plenty of warning about what Putin's plans were. All in all, this will be catalyst needed for us to start wave 3 down. Look back at your charts to 2015 when Russia invaded Crimea to get a better understanding of what will happen in the markets in the weeks to come.
2.) Interest Rates and the Fed: This will be the eventual cause of the crash of 2022. As I've long said, the Fed always seem to do the worst thing at the worst possible time. With the date of an interest rate decision coming in March, many feel this is definite. Remember, the market is a living, breathing organism and changes constantly. Even though there's a scheduled date to make this decision does NOT mean the Fed can't pull that agenda and begin raising rates sooner and/or begin faster tapering. Be on the lookout for a possible "emergency meeting by the Fed to begin doing one or both of these before that meeting in March.
3.) Elliottwave Theory and Fibonacci: I've been a long time believer of EW, because of the aforementioned statement of the market being a living, breathing organism. As predictable and statistically probable it is that you will take a mere breathe in the next 15 seconds, the overall market moves in very similar ways. As someone who follows EW and Fibonacci Retracement levels, I have found this to be even more true. The market is somewhat predictable. For instance, I was able to predict the top of the SPY at 480 using Fib retracements dating back a year ago plus. Now, I didn't know the exact date, but being that we were in wave 5, the general consensus was that this market would crawl and scratch all the way to that figure as it did during wave 5 up prior to the pre-COVID crash. Another thing to consider using EW is what is called an ECM date (Economic Confidence Model) which suggests that an event will occur (more often than not geopolitical), will send world economies running frantically from the markets. The ECM date doesn't predict what the event will be only that there is a likely event to occur. Since we are on the subject, this model predicted an event in 2015 (Russia/Crimera) and COVID (2020). The next ECM date is scheduled to fall on mid March, so with that being said, there is no better time to be short than now.
Lastly, I have heard from those that have traded much longer than me that this environment we are currently in could be setting us up for the biggest crash of their lifetimes. Gold and oil are rising which also has a correlation to impending recessions. After the ice breaks, we will likely see oil crash, but gold will probably sky rocket being that it'll be a great safe haven for folks wanting to keep themselves funded in the market. Stay on your toes this year, because this wave 3 is only wave 3 of a larger wave 1 down. I hope my followers found this helpful.
Not financial advice
Things to pay attention to around us:
1.) Russia/Ukraine tensions: The world is anticipating the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now this is alarming, but is it really that big of a deal? History shows that Russia likes to ruffle international feathers during democratic presidencies (Carter/ Afghanistan 1979, Crimea/Obama 2015, (current) Biden/Ukraine 2022). Aside from politics, let's look at the history of Ukraine. Ukraine, for most of it's history, was apart of Russia. It wasn't until 1991 that they "succeeded" from the USSR and became a sovereign state. Since then, Russia is no longer the Soviet Union and Putin is seemingly on a path to reclaim what was once his (or Russia's). Ukraine is half Russian speaking anyway, so I'm sure that half could care less to be back under the Russian umbrella. I expect Russia will get what back they deem they're "property" with very little international intervention. So for those crying out WW3, cool your jets and understand the Crimean conflict gave us plenty of warning about what Putin's plans were. All in all, this will be catalyst needed for us to start wave 3 down. Look back at your charts to 2015 when Russia invaded Crimea to get a better understanding of what will happen in the markets in the weeks to come.
2.) Interest Rates and the Fed: This will be the eventual cause of the crash of 2022. As I've long said, the Fed always seem to do the worst thing at the worst possible time. With the date of an interest rate decision coming in March, many feel this is definite. Remember, the market is a living, breathing organism and changes constantly. Even though there's a scheduled date to make this decision does NOT mean the Fed can't pull that agenda and begin raising rates sooner and/or begin faster tapering. Be on the lookout for a possible "emergency meeting by the Fed to begin doing one or both of these before that meeting in March.
3.) Elliottwave Theory and Fibonacci: I've been a long time believer of EW, because of the aforementioned statement of the market being a living, breathing organism. As predictable and statistically probable it is that you will take a mere breathe in the next 15 seconds, the overall market moves in very similar ways. As someone who follows EW and Fibonacci Retracement levels, I have found this to be even more true. The market is somewhat predictable. For instance, I was able to predict the top of the SPY at 480 using Fib retracements dating back a year ago plus. Now, I didn't know the exact date, but being that we were in wave 5, the general consensus was that this market would crawl and scratch all the way to that figure as it did during wave 5 up prior to the pre-COVID crash. Another thing to consider using EW is what is called an ECM date (Economic Confidence Model) which suggests that an event will occur (more often than not geopolitical), will send world economies running frantically from the markets. The ECM date doesn't predict what the event will be only that there is a likely event to occur. Since we are on the subject, this model predicted an event in 2015 (Russia/Crimera) and COVID (2020). The next ECM date is scheduled to fall on mid March, so with that being said, there is no better time to be short than now.
Lastly, I have heard from those that have traded much longer than me that this environment we are currently in could be setting us up for the biggest crash of their lifetimes. Gold and oil are rising which also has a correlation to impending recessions. After the ice breaks, we will likely see oil crash, but gold will probably sky rocket being that it'll be a great safe haven for folks wanting to keep themselves funded in the market. Stay on your toes this year, because this wave 3 is only wave 3 of a larger wave 1 down. I hope my followers found this helpful.
Not financial advice
Comment:
*Crimera was February 2014, not 2015*