=== Prediction ===
Bull-Market Top @ 208.88 on 2014-12-08
Bear-Market Bottom @ 106.50 on 2023-02-01
Go Short @ 208.88, Stop Loss @ 227.43, Profit Target @ 106.50 in 8 years.
=== Description ===
I hope you've made lots of money in the bull market that has been raging since March 2009. Anyone who has been using a trend-following "buy-the-dips" trading strategy is now rich, and everyone (even my Dad!) is talking about how great the stock market is. Well, I have some bad news: this party is about to end. As of today, the SPY will begin a bear market that will last until February 2023, and its price will drop 61.8% to 106.50.
Here is a summary of my thought process (TradingView does not allow me to enter very long descriptions, so I can't go into too much detail. There's a link to my full description at the bottom):
#1 - Perfect Sebelliott "End-of-C" Wave counts on *every* time frame.
#2 - When the market starts to go down, people will worry that the Fed will not be able to maintain its hawkish stance. This causes a positive-feedback selling cycle.
#3 - The Dollar needs to pull back from its recent rally, and since it is currently correlated with the stock market, it will pull the market down too.
#4 - Upcoming bounce in oil will reduce company profits and push stock market down.
#5 - Everyone is Bullish: When my Dad, Wife, and Drinking Buddies all start talking to me about the stock market, and how it keeps going up, up, up... then I know we're getting close a top. When my Dad wants to invest his entire retirement account into GoPro ( GPRO ), I know we're there. :)
Here is a link to my full, detailed description: http://likebike.com/trading/20141208_8_year_bear_market_starts_today.html
So while I find your "call for a top" very interesting, I think you should call only for a possible interim top, but not yet for a trend recersal. Sorry, but I am simply very sceptic about these kind of long term projections. I am also sepctic when big banks put a 2015 year end bullish tgt for SP500.
I hope you will be right.