Look out for the fall-out from wage support withdrawals
Currently, the US market has been supported by fiscal support, as means of aiding recovery from COVID-19.
Several States now withdrawing Federal support!
As a side note: if $300 week social welfare support is so generous it stops many from working, there's a fundamental problem with the US wage structure!
In any case, my Market Crash indicator is still neutral.
Let's keep an eye out over the next week, as support withdrawal starts to take effect. Either:
1) workers go back to work and economy kick starts; or
2) economy falters, growth estimates and marker corrects -- or crashes!
Be prepared for short side positioning.
Several States now withdrawing Federal support!
As a side note: if $300 week social welfare support is so generous it stops many from working, there's a fundamental problem with the US wage structure!
In any case, my Market Crash indicator is still neutral.
Let's keep an eye out over the next week, as support withdrawal starts to take effect. Either:
1) workers go back to work and economy kick starts; or
2) economy falters, growth estimates and marker corrects -- or crashes!
Be prepared for short side positioning.
Comment:
Just waiting for my Market Crash Indicator indicate a high probability crash scenario before I start to exit longs and swing trade to the down side. The my Inverse Vol indicator indicates long vol (go long inverse vol ETF like VXX) - then PUT options with delta in your favour and theta risk mitigated.
