I assume this gap down in the premarket is a setup for a move toward 412.
The soft touch of 410.5 is the reason for this assumption, indicative of a specific strategy by market makers. Earnings coming up, still bearish towards earnings, I'd assume everyone's net income comes down, however, if this is now assumed by the market and tech posts a surprise, we could be in for some bullish action, again only if tech posts a surprise in the green.
AMZN is directly correlated with consumer spending so I'll be surprised if Amazon posts positive earnings, if they give good guidance it could balance out the unattractive earnings.
Now that I think of it, tech could potentially post massive surprises because of massive layoffs. This would change projected earnings as the burden of those salaries are no longer there, definitely, a thought to consider since Twitter cut like 80% of its staff and that trend was not associated with Tesla so there should be a disparity in earnings between Tesla that was already running efficiently and tech that picked up the trend.
The soft touch of 410.5 is the reason for this assumption, indicative of a specific strategy by market makers. Earnings coming up, still bearish towards earnings, I'd assume everyone's net income comes down, however, if this is now assumed by the market and tech posts a surprise, we could be in for some bullish action, again only if tech posts a surprise in the green.
AMZN is directly correlated with consumer spending so I'll be surprised if Amazon posts positive earnings, if they give good guidance it could balance out the unattractive earnings.
Now that I think of it, tech could potentially post massive surprises because of massive layoffs. This would change projected earnings as the burden of those salaries are no longer there, definitely, a thought to consider since Twitter cut like 80% of its staff and that trend was not associated with Tesla so there should be a disparity in earnings between Tesla that was already running efficiently and tech that picked up the trend.
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GM and Mcdonald's posted surprising net incomes, we could see this trend following tech
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These recent tails appear to me as attempted fills on a low-limit block order, we're now opening with that block order to be filled, this is all speculation fair warning. With the volume of the potential block order being filled sub 411 we could slingshot above 412, especially with the theta build-up on the side of puts from the multiple days of a downtrend. Market makers indeed walking on thin ice as if support breaks 395 range looks plausible if tech earnings go bloody but data doesn't agree w/ the assumption, yes volatility but no clear indication of the downside. Probably volatility from let's say MSFT and AAPL reporting well but AMZN reporting negative.
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I'd like a sub 411 open to trade to the upside, 410.5 seems to be the market maker's sweet spot and I believe they'll shoot for a 410.5 open but there appears to be aggressive support.
Still, I have to assume the market makers will make sure to make what's in their best interest happen which is a 410.5 open. Now that I look at volume analysis, they appear to be creating a 410.3-410.7 floor so maybe we open to the downside and flood those blood order fills in after they're done doing what they do best, violating theta ;)
Still, I have to assume the market makers will make sure to make what's in their best interest happen which is a 410.5 open. Now that I look at volume analysis, they appear to be creating a 410.3-410.7 floor so maybe we open to the downside and flood those blood order fills in after they're done doing what they do best, violating theta ;)
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Huge tail spike in pre-market to 411.91, I believe I am taking that as direct confirmation of the 412 play I was speculating about
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Currently hovering 411 in premarket, I previously assumed we'd open 410.5 but I believe it is better for the market maker to open 411 so they can catch theta to the downside to 410.5 then begin the climb.
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Very large 415 call buybacks expiring tomorrow @ .15 fill, 100% MM cover,
10:12 am we see a 1.5 million put buy which I will assume is short because of the timing of the put occurring after a volatility-driven drop maximizing the theta value the whale will watch burn over time.
Current time 10:16 a.m. SPY price 409.7 still expecting 413
10:12 am we see a 1.5 million put buy which I will assume is short because of the timing of the put occurring after a volatility-driven drop maximizing the theta value the whale will watch burn over time.
Current time 10:16 a.m. SPY price 409.7 still expecting 413