The bonds and currency markets are anticipating and have trended with rising risk and volatility in the markets, and they are clearly not predicting a "pivot" in Fed policy. These markets are usually correct. Meanwhile, the stock market is in Fantasyland by trending upward while anticipating that the Fed will cut interest rates. However no Fed official has suggested or inferred this and the bond and currency markets are making that clear.
I also added in the Futures market but it has been distorted because of the war.
The white line is the average of SPY and Nasdaq.
I also added in the Futures market but it has been distorted because of the war.
The white line is the average of SPY and Nasdaq.