Spy for AMEX:SPY by ContraryTrader

Weekly higher low.. Bulls see a cup and handle. Bears see their H&S back in play.

So this is normally a bearish pattern .
It's called a Ascending broadening wedge.. you could Google it for images but I'll show you an example of it playing out..

Here's Boeing daily chart, you'll see the same pattern here and the results..

I think this week we're going to push up to that yellow trendline resistance.
If Cpi comes in as expected or better we should break above it for 449-450.

I'd be surprised to see a leg higher than 450 on spy unless QQQ can break out of the 379 area or this resistance

With that being said my weekly upside targets on Spy and QQQ are
450
379

Looking for the market to start the week off green and Flush as we get closer to Thursday (PPI) , Friday (Quad witching).

Weekly low possibility on Spy , I would go with 438-440. The reason I chose those numbers are because of the trendline support that spy has bounced off of all year; I wouldn't push to any short target below that unless spy breaks that..

I may go over Dow later in the week if something new pops up but my previous spy post covers that..

What I did notice was the Dow Jones transportation.
Looks really bearish here with a close back inside this triangle.
Dow jones transport usually proceeds the Dow Jones itself and is also a bell weather on the economy

For the most part, most of the
top sectors with the exception of XLK and SMH traded in place and look neutral

Here's XLY (Amzn/Tsla)
Look at the choppy price action on Amzn and TSLA and you wouldn't be surprised if you watched XLY..
Weekly chart here shows uptrend and a pennant.

Similar consolidation on
XLC (Googl,meta,Nflx)

And XLF (Financials)
Literally traded in place for 3days

Vix daily chart.. I think last week early push and then laster flush was the center piece price action for a double bottom forming that will take us back to 17 by EOW

Vix is so close to 13.00 concrete support. Only way spy breaks above 455 is vix goes below 13.00 and thats a stretch..

But as always
Lets see what happens

Comment:

Spy resistance
448.50 over that 449.25, 450.50

Spy support - 446.75

Qqq Resistance
376.30 over that 378.00

Qqq Support - 375.00

Tight window today with what I expect will be low volume across the board.

Comment:

Tsla - long only over 266 or if retraces back to 258-260..
Broke out of a pennant after a week of consolidation..
If it gets over 266, 280 will be the next target..

Comment:

Careful with what tech you trade today.. Unless QQQ can break over 376.30 there will be choppiness. Remember, if the QQQ only has a 1$ window today they can't pump all tech names so some of the premarket movers will flush like what happened Friday. If QQQ can break AND HOLD over 376 then you will see a broader rally

Comment:

375-376 is tough for QQQ.. low volume day, don't know if it'll get back over it today maybe a push from aapl tomorrow..

I'm on the sidelines.. everything gapped to resistance and I didn't want to scalp the short..

Spy rejected at yellow line.. 50sma support

Comment:

Definitely a low volume day as expected..
Seems like build a position day.. Was tempted to buy the dip on apple again but I'll wait.

SMH chip sector looks nasty but NVDA holding its 50ema so they may recover.. Same rules apply into tomorrow, until we break over resistance we will have fawkery.. I'll be back on later

Comment:

Well I said positioning day..
And they positioned for the long atleast into Wed.
Here's IXIC nasdaq 1hour chart..

Obvious Pennant seen

But when you zero in on the last 2 day price action, you can see an inverted H&S has formed.. target is 14,000 by wed which is basically 379 on QQQ.

Comment:

Chip sector was dragging the most but NVDA has bounced off support 50ema. Tsla will probably pushed to 280 soon. If aapl pops tomorrow we rally to bull targets of the week and then let Cpi take the wheel

Comment:

1hour vix..
Cci rolling over bearish. I think we go for the gap close next 2 days..

Comment:

Dow jones Daily
.. we will see which way this breaks in the next 2 days . I'll believe over 35k

Comment:

NYA/NYSE
Similar setup as the Dow and QQQ..
Will break up or down this week
Over 16,100 and it's a breakout

Comment:

XLC sector. (GOOGL,META,NFLX)

Closed up at resistance here at 68..
RSI also at resistance..
Careful on any long on those stocks here if 68 gets some push back

XLY (Tsla/Amzn) Same look

XLK
(Msft and aapl)
Retesting the wedge from last week fallout.
Should close gap at 175 tomorrow if aapl pops. If it can't close back inside the correction will kick off

Comment:

I'll be waiting to trade around apple event

Spy support
446.50 - 447.50
I don't think we break 446 today or atleast until aapl event.

Qqq
Support
374- 375.50

Overall I think this will be a Dip buy day, but be picky!

Another low volume day across the board going into CPI.

Comment:

XLF (Banks)Keeps tagging the resistance of this pennant.. Exact same pennant as Dow and NYSE.. they will all make the same move in coming days

Comment:

Yes chip sector lagged; Today they've been nominated plunge protectors

Comment:

For my aapl traders
15min chart.
Pressure cooker/ ascending triangle ..

Comment:

In aapl
180c
9/15
177.00 stop loss
My target is 182 gap close

Comment:

Stopped out...
I'll try again back over 178

Comment:

Below 374 Qqq next support
373.60
373.00
I doubt it breaks 373.00 today...
Aapl event can prop it back up or flush it to 373..

378 Gap close this IMO

Comment:

Qqq 1hour chart
Got near the 373 support.
If it holds I think it's 378 from here

Comment:

Those sectors I posted last night
XLY and XLC both got rejected which is bad but not all bad.. what I'm saying is
Support still holds, we just couldn't break resistance.

4hour charts are closing up a harming pattern

NYSE
Got rejected on its 50sma and trendline resistance. That will put an end to the bank run unless they break out

Should the CPI come in good we go for gap close and retest those sector tops again .

Comment:

VIX is forming that double mentioned earlier in the week.. will need a gap down or flush here to negate it..break out over 15.00

Comment:

Swinging MSFT 337c
Small position..

Comment:

Looking at the futures.

NQ dipped on CPI and bounced off 15,400
Horizontal support

Es dip and also bounced at 4500
Horizontal support

I want to see Vix break that 13.73 support , it did get some push back this morning at resistance

Comment:

NQ is leaning oversold on 2-3hour.
Qqq next support is 372.50 , below that is 369-370.. If 372.50 holds, they'll buy this up

Comment:

Added some more MSFT at the open.. trailing stop in place now..

Higher 10yr is always bad for cylicals, that's why IWM,DJT and NYsE are struggling.

Tech is will shoulder for this to stay green..
Aapl is the party pooper, they could drop and retest that 173.50..

Comment:

Stopped out for 40% profit

Fawking aapl drag..

Comment:

Qqq 15min chart.. Falling wedge showing.. It's trying to breakout ..

Comment:

If qqq breaks 372.00 I'm Shorting to 370 otherwise, this is untradeable

Comment:

I'm in 373 stop

Comment:

Covering... here

Comment:

Nice trap...
Qqq 15min.. trying at the wedge AGAIN

Comment:

Broke out.
Full move is to 376 gap close.
It can back test wedge breakout or just keep going

Comment:

Vix heading to the gap close now..

Comment:

Aapl daily chart.
That blue trendline represents Higherlows.
If it can hold that Support, then the low is in for today. If it loses that Support 170 is next stop

Comment:

XLY sector bumping its head against resistance AGAIN.
care ful if you're long Tsla or amzn up here.

Comment:

Games... I'll be back on later...
I think they'll push it simply because the vix is going down.. Probably will push the algo to "Supreme fawkery " to melt this up

Comment:

Vix.. stop short of gap close on This trendline support.. Unless they break below this and Flush the market will struggle to go higher

Comment:

Witching Fridays are not necessarily bearish,, just volatile. But I've Never seen A bullish Sept witching .

Don't know what PPI will bring tomorrow but with those upside gaps on Spy 449 and QQQ 378 I don't feel comfortable short swinging yet.

Comment:

SMH (Chip sector)
Last 7 day range has been confined 149-152. Today we are close to resistance.. tomorrow we either break above for a double bottom or reject and H&S

Comment:

Qqq 15min.. support is now resistance.
Couldn't get back inside channel late day.

Only over 376.30 for calls

See you'll tomorrow

Comment:

Just getting on..
QqQ has one more gap to close at 378.05

ARM IPO is scheduled to release sometime today. Wouldn't be surprised if that gives it the final pop to close gap.

Too late to open new longs in the day..

I think we bleeding tomorrow and range trade Monday and Tuesday into FOMC.

Comment:

And there's your ARM pop on QQQ

Comment:

Waiting till EOD to go short

Comment:

Dow jones most likely will push to that 35k today or tomorrow.. depending on what happens there will determine the spy next move.
If it breaks out I expect more weakness in tech

Comment:

NYSE broke out too...
16,100 resistance in needs to break for a double bottom.. Same as dow

Comment:

Qqq 1hour chart..
Gap close at 378.00
If it keeps pushing , next resistance at 379.30

376.30 support

Comment:

Qqq 2hour chart...
Yeah, looking at the bigger picture I think we tagged 379.50 then pullback to 376 support

Comment:

Vix 1-2 hour CCI is way over sold .
If you have short dated calls place your stop losses

Comment:

And this is why I wait EOD to short..
Fawkery power hour.

Next resistance on Spy 451.50
Qqq 379.50

Comment:

This Adbe earnings after hours has all the A.I hype around it.. Should move the Q's which ever way it goes.. I'm looking forward to Shorting them tomorrow post earnings

Comment:

Swinging Amzn
142p
9/22
Stop loss 146.00

Comment:

Amzn
30min chart and rsi

Comment:

XLY (Tesla, Amzn)

Stop right at gap resistance..

Comment:

I'll be up bright an early tomorrow ✌

Comment:

NQ 3hour chart
Rising wedge ..
Shorts under 15,680..
Target support or 15,550.
Money flow on 3-4 over bought.
I'd be surprised if they broke this wedge before FOMC. Did tomorrow then tight chop

Comment:

Dow jones.. been bumping its head all morning at 35k resistance..
Looking for a pullback to 34,800 today..

Comment:

Here's are just a couple of things I see..
Aapl wantsa a 177 test today.

Tesla wants to test 281 gap resistance.

Googl pullback target for today 137.00

Meta pullback 310.00 minimum. If it loses 310, we go to 307

Comment:

Adbe.. as long as this stays under 540, Adbe is head back to 510, not saying today but most likely next week .

Next strongest support is 50sma at 528.. below that and 510 incoming.