From 416 to 440 Spy made this move on majority of tech back; If spy loses 440 I think we are back to the 200sma minimum with a dead cat bounce or pit stop at 430. The drop from 440-416 will come from the same stocks that help push spy to this level (Tech).
yearly uptrend support at 440 this week
Weekly RSI uptrend on support.
So technically we haven't broken the backbone support yet but when I look at the tech sectors
XLY (Tsla , Amzn)
XLK (aapl,MSft)
SMH (Nvda,Amd)
XLC (Googl,Meta,NFLX)
Things look inevitable..
Let's start with IXIC
Nasdaq
Closed right above yearly uptrend at 13,600.
Weekly RSI
Weekly chart
XLY
Rejected at 175 resistance looking for a pullback minimum to 166 or yearly uptrend.
XLC
Rejected at 68 fib resistance .. bearish divergence on daily RSI and Bearish engulfing candlestick.
XLK
Head and shoulder showing. Right shoulder forming from a rising wedge. First target 163.. things get really nasty after that
Daily rsi
Daily chart
SMH
The chip sector looks the worst.
Text book distribution with a H&S formed .
I think NVDA will be closing alot of gaps to the downside in the next few weeks
I think a 10% correction on Nasdaq is incoming
Vix
Daily chart
Bullish falling wedged formed. We closed up at resistance here at 14.30
Once we breakover 14.30 it's risk off.
Daily CCI is telling me this thing will spike this week. 1hour CCI is as Overbought as NQ is oversold so I wouldn't be surprised if vix is red Monday at some point
For Monday and Tuesday next week I expect a small pop. ES and NQ are really oversold on the 1hour. Spy and QQQ are oversold on the 30min..
Let's go over some targets
Qqq 15min
Resistances - 371.30 , 372.50, 374
Support - 370.00, 369.00, 367.00
Falling wedge forming , if we gap dow. Monday at or around 369 I'd be inclined to buy the dip . If we open in the green and breakout of this wedge I'll sit it out, because usually Mondays follow Fridays momentum so most likely we would back test the breakout.
Spy 30min
This ascending broadening wedge pattern is playing out to the T. Next step in this pattern is sometime a retest of the previous support.
Formed a small falling wedge on Friday similar to qqq.
Spy resistance -
444,445 , 447(1hour 200sma
Support- 443, 442.50, 441, 440(Very tough support)
Same strategy as qqq if we open red I'd look for a dip to get into. Chances of us breaking g 440 before fomc is slim. I think we could definitely test 445-447 before Fomc.
I'll go over Dow,IWM tomorrow and post some new Ideas
yearly uptrend support at 440 this week
Weekly RSI uptrend on support.
So technically we haven't broken the backbone support yet but when I look at the tech sectors
XLY (Tsla , Amzn)
XLK (aapl,MSft)
SMH (Nvda,Amd)
XLC (Googl,Meta,NFLX)
Things look inevitable..
Let's start with IXIC
Nasdaq
Closed right above yearly uptrend at 13,600.
Weekly RSI
Weekly chart
XLY
Rejected at 175 resistance looking for a pullback minimum to 166 or yearly uptrend.
XLC
Rejected at 68 fib resistance .. bearish divergence on daily RSI and Bearish engulfing candlestick.
XLK
Head and shoulder showing. Right shoulder forming from a rising wedge. First target 163.. things get really nasty after that
Daily rsi
Daily chart
SMH
The chip sector looks the worst.
Text book distribution with a H&S formed .
I think NVDA will be closing alot of gaps to the downside in the next few weeks
I think a 10% correction on Nasdaq is incoming
Vix
Daily chart
Bullish falling wedged formed. We closed up at resistance here at 14.30
Once we breakover 14.30 it's risk off.
Daily CCI is telling me this thing will spike this week. 1hour CCI is as Overbought as NQ is oversold so I wouldn't be surprised if vix is red Monday at some point
For Monday and Tuesday next week I expect a small pop. ES and NQ are really oversold on the 1hour. Spy and QQQ are oversold on the 30min..
Let's go over some targets
Qqq 15min
Resistances - 371.30 , 372.50, 374
Support - 370.00, 369.00, 367.00
Falling wedge forming , if we gap dow. Monday at or around 369 I'd be inclined to buy the dip . If we open in the green and breakout of this wedge I'll sit it out, because usually Mondays follow Fridays momentum so most likely we would back test the breakout.
Spy 30min
This ascending broadening wedge pattern is playing out to the T. Next step in this pattern is sometime a retest of the previous support.
Formed a small falling wedge on Friday similar to qqq.
Spy resistance -
444,445 , 447(1hour 200sma
Support- 443, 442.50, 441, 440(Very tough support)
Same strategy as qqq if we open red I'd look for a dip to get into. Chances of us breaking g 440 before fomc is slim. I think we could definitely test 445-447 before Fomc.
I'll go over Dow,IWM tomorrow and post some new Ideas
Comment:
DJI (Dow jones)
Daily chart
Rejected at trendline support Friday. Sold off to daily 20sma at 34,580. If we break the 20sma the next support will be 34,450 (Trendline). The strongest support is the weekly 21ema at 34,300.
When the Dow does break 33,300 I think the immediate correction will look like this
H&S and 5% drop
For the immediate play, like the spy and qqq the dow formed a falling wedge late Friday and actually broke out and retested so I would be surprised if they outperformed early monday
Daily chart
Rejected at trendline support Friday. Sold off to daily 20sma at 34,580. If we break the 20sma the next support will be 34,450 (Trendline). The strongest support is the weekly 21ema at 34,300.
When the Dow does break 33,300 I think the immediate correction will look like this
H&S and 5% drop
For the immediate play, like the spy and qqq the dow formed a falling wedge late Friday and actually broke out and retested so I would be surprised if they outperformed early monday
Comment:
Well.. I got my red opener.
Vix gapped above 21ema and broke out of the wedge stopping short of its 50sma.
CCI 1hour is way extended , 2hour cci getting. Should see a vix slight pullback by EOD or tomorrow before FOMC.
If QQQ can hold 369.00 I'll try
371c
9/19
Target 371.30
With a 368.50 stop..
Below 369 qqq next support is 367.50.
For the most part, the date is coming from Chip sector... NVDA needs to recover 433. There's no support under 430 until 414
Spy support levels
442.50
441.00
Vix gapped above 21ema and broke out of the wedge stopping short of its 50sma.
CCI 1hour is way extended , 2hour cci getting. Should see a vix slight pullback by EOD or tomorrow before FOMC.
If QQQ can hold 369.00 I'll try
371c
9/19
Target 371.30
With a 368.50 stop..
Below 369 qqq next support is 367.50.
For the most part, the date is coming from Chip sector... NVDA needs to recover 433. There's no support under 430 until 414
Spy support levels
442.50
441.00
Comment:
Covered and on the sideline
.. Aapl is trying , NVdA stopped bleeding.
Most tech are holding support .. now they just need to catch a bid
.. Aapl is trying , NVdA stopped bleeding.
Most tech are holding support .. now they just need to catch a bid
Comment:
If qqq can break over 371.30next stop is 372.50 .. I don't think it will get over 372.50 today
.
.
Comment:
And this is why you get in and get when you go against the trend..
As long as aapl holds majority of its gains qqq should hold 369..
369.00 - 371.30 chop zone
I'll be back on later
As long as aapl holds majority of its gains qqq should hold 369..
369.00 - 371.30 chop zone
I'll be back on later
Comment:
Qqq 5min chart
Nasty if we break back below 371..
Nasty if we break back below 371..
Comment:
..last one...You can't make this fawkery up..
Googl wedge within a wedge..
Bearish divergence on RSI.. 70% chance we Tag 132 by End of next week.
Wait for a drop below 136.50 or Fade any pop over 139.00
Googl wedge within a wedge..
Bearish divergence on RSI.. 70% chance we Tag 132 by End of next week.
Wait for a drop below 136.50 or Fade any pop over 139.00
Comment:
Vix broke out of wedge premarket and has pulled back and retested wedge breakout..
The market will need the vix to break back below 13.75 to find some footing and push higher .
The market will need the vix to break back below 13.75 to find some footing and push higher .
Comment:
Es 3hour moneyflow oversold and Spy and QQQ 1hour moneyflow going oversold.. technically this usually means a 1% rip to the upside is coming within the next 2 trading sessions. Looking forward to Algo fawkery.
Catch you'll Tomorrow ✌
Catch you'll Tomorrow ✌
Comment:
Despite the premarket choppiness, I think this will grnd its way green today.
I like MSFT calls over 328.60.
Target 332.50
Stop loss 327.50
Amzn calls over 140.30
Target 142.00
Stop loss 139.70
I like MSFT calls over 328.60.
Target 332.50
Stop loss 327.50
Amzn calls over 140.30
Target 142.00
Stop loss 139.70
Comment:
Qqq ,
As you know from yesterday , 369.00 is the line in the sand for primary support .
But turn to your 1hour chart, now place your 200sma on it. Notice the support at 370.00?
So 370.00 or 1hour 200sma is our secondary support, we could grind up from there
As you know from yesterday , 369.00 is the line in the sand for primary support .
But turn to your 1hour chart, now place your 200sma on it. Notice the support at 370.00?
So 370.00 or 1hour 200sma is our secondary support, we could grind up from there
Comment:
Little double bottom on the VIx 15min chart playing out has the market slumping..
21ema overhead at 14.35 ..
Not looking to short the market today.. I'm looking to buy the dip at some point
21ema overhead at 14.35 ..
Not looking to short the market today.. I'm looking to buy the dip at some point
Comment:
Back in qqq calls
371
9/20
368 stop
371
9/20
368 stop
Comment:
Stopped out here
Comment:
440.80
Next support on spy
367.11 on QQQ ..
Vix next resistance 50sma ..
I was a day early on this pop...
I'm on the sidelines
Next support on spy
367.11 on QQQ ..
Vix next resistance 50sma ..
I was a day early on this pop...
I'm on the sidelines
Comment:
Things get nasty if vix breaks 50sma /14.80
If it holds under 50sma, we might have bottomed here for the day
If it holds under 50sma, we might have bottomed here for the day
Comment:
Es and NQ 1-2 candles outside BBands..
1hour money flow oversold
That type of oversold won't hold...
Place a stop om your short dated puts
1hour money flow oversold
That type of oversold won't hold...
Place a stop om your short dated puts
Comment:
Looking for the vix to pullback here to 21ema 14.30
Comment:
439.94 gap closed on spy..
Comment:
Dow bouncing off its weekly 21ema
Comment:
Could've been a bear pennant but now it's looking bullish
Qqq 15min
Qqq 15min
Comment:
You see the 21ema on vix 5min?
Been riding it all morning.
Flush below that and markets pop
Been riding it all morning.
Flush below that and markets pop
Comment:
Most likely push up to 369 for QQQ.
370 maybe..
No higher than that for today
370 maybe..
No higher than that for today
Comment:
Vix approaching 21ema at 14.35..
If it bounces there's then the market is over for the day.. if vix falls through 21ema we could see a full fawkery recovery
If it bounces there's then the market is over for the day.. if vix falls through 21ema we could see a full fawkery recovery
Comment:
Nq daily chart..
2days straight couldn't get back inside rising wedge..
Dropped to 50ema today and bounced... looking for a final pop up to 15,500 this week before the real sell.
2days straight couldn't get back inside rising wedge..
Dropped to 50ema today and bounced... looking for a final pop up to 15,500 this week before the real sell.
Comment:
Qqq 15min chart..
Formed a smaller bullish broadening wedge here in white.. this should take us back to 374...
I like calls over 371.30
I'll be on late tomorrow ✌
Formed a smaller bullish broadening wedge here in white.. this should take us back to 374...
I like calls over 371.30
I'll be on late tomorrow ✌
Comment:
Qqq 1hour chart..
If 369.00 holds , then 375 maybe.
Inverted H&S.. will need to chop a few more hours to round off right shoulders
Entry over 171.50
Vix - market bearish if vix breaks above 14.70
Market bullish vix breaks below 13.70
Be back on later
If 369.00 holds , then 375 maybe.
Inverted H&S.. will need to chop a few more hours to round off right shoulders
Entry over 171.50
Vix - market bearish if vix breaks above 14.70
Market bullish vix breaks below 13.70
Be back on later
Comment:
Still on the sides.. No direction has been chosen ..
To the upside you know my levels..
I will need to see a break of yesterday's low on QQQ to short this ..
Below 367 and we head to 360-362
To the upside you know my levels..
I will need to see a break of yesterday's low on QQQ to short this ..
Below 367 and we head to 360-362
Comment:
Unless QQQ can breakback over 371.30, I don't like calls period.. I think this momentum carries into tomorrow..
No news to change this course until PCE.
Stay short
.
Next supports
362.50 QQQ
Spy breaks 439.50 next support
436 weekly 21ema
No news to change this course until PCE.
Stay short
.
Next supports
362.50 QQQ
Spy breaks 439.50 next support
436 weekly 21ema
Comment:
Vix..
Most likely a pop over 50sma tomorrow and then 17.00 next
Most likely a pop over 50sma tomorrow and then 17.00 next
Comment:
NQ 2hour chart.. never saw another retest of the wedge and we probably won't before this plays out
.. Fade the pops
.. Fade the pops
Comment:
Qqq 1hour chart..
Looking for a dead cat bounce a 362.50..
Below 362.00 and we head to 360.
If we bounce at 362.50 tomorrow, look for a range of 362.50 -365.00
Looking for a dead cat bounce a 362.50..
Below 362.00 and we head to 360.
If we bounce at 362.50 tomorrow, look for a range of 362.50 -365.00
Comment:
The vix has the steering wheel now on the market.. Two things will have to happen before vix stops pushing higher.
1. Rejection at 200sma
2. Outside bbands.
New target on Spy and QQQ
Spy 430
Qqq 356.40
Unless the spy breaks 434 today, don't chase the short first, let it retest 436-437 first.
Unless qqq breaks 359.00 don't chase the short first, let it retest 362.50 first.
1. Rejection at 200sma
2. Outside bbands.
New target on Spy and QQQ
Spy 430
Qqq 356.40
Unless the spy breaks 434 today, don't chase the short first, let it retest 436-437 first.
Unless qqq breaks 359.00 don't chase the short first, let it retest 362.50 first.
Comment:
The best short setup I can find is Tsla..
Gapping below trendline and 260 support.
Look for a retest of 260 then a short target of 242. If tsla pushes over 261 it can retest 266, but 242 is inevitable.
Or you can wait for a break below 254, stop loss 257.
Gapping below trendline and 260 support.
Look for a retest of 260 then a short target of 242. If tsla pushes over 261 it can retest 266, but 242 is inevitable.
Or you can wait for a break below 254, stop loss 257.
Comment:
2hour chart XLY
(TSLA/Amzn)
H&S at play here , gapping down below neckline at 166..
Target 162 minimum
(TSLA/Amzn)
H&S at play here , gapping down below neckline at 166..
Target 162 minimum
Comment:
10yr spiked up to resistance .. another reason I'm cautious about opening shorts at the open.. with the exception of the VIX, everything else tells me to scalp calls , just don't overstay my welcome
Comment:
Healthcare and financials propping the dow..
Aapl, Msft plunge protector today.
Googl below 132, headed to 127.00
Aapl, Msft plunge protector today.
Googl below 132, headed to 127.00
Comment:
IXIC nasdaq composite.
Wants .5 fib or 50% retracement at 13,150 before any meaningful bounce. Translation 356 QQQ
Wants .5 fib or 50% retracement at 13,150 before any meaningful bounce. Translation 356 QQQ
Comment:
Mexican stand off here in Chop central... I have some 9/29 puts I'm holding .. 9/22 are getting Theta slayed .. didn't have the guts to short that 324 pop on MSFT 😅... be back on later
Comment:
Nyse/Nya
Breached wedge support. Sitting right above 200sma at 16,000.
I think we will test this tomorrow , then we'll see what happens.
Big named stocks gapped down below BBands and spent the day consolidating..
If we pop , look to fade at 436, grab some time .. we should see 430 and lower sometime next week but if they could chop things around until then..
As long as vix holds 14.80 , market is bearish
Breached wedge support. Sitting right above 200sma at 16,000.
I think we will test this tomorrow , then we'll see what happens.
Big named stocks gapped down below BBands and spent the day consolidating..
If we pop , look to fade at 436, grab some time .. we should see 430 and lower sometime next week but if they could chop things around until then..
As long as vix holds 14.80 , market is bearish
Comment:
Looking for the Vix to test the 200sma tomorrow 17.50 - 18.00
Then the dip can be bought.. the market will probably hold tomorrow's lows into PCE next week..
Then the dip can be bought.. the market will probably hold tomorrow's lows into PCE next week..
Comment:
2 things I'm looking for to buy the temporary dip.
1.13,150 Nasdaq composite hold support
2. Vix 200sma rejection
1.13,150 Nasdaq composite hold support
2. Vix 200sma rejection
Comment:
Dow closed on Support
34,000.. if it breaks that, no support 33,610.
NYSE/NYA..
Closed directly on top of its 200sma ..
Vix is still pushing pass 17.00 in the after hours..
If we gap down buy the dip will be the trade .. ✌
34,000.. if it breaks that, no support 33,610.
NYSE/NYA..
Closed directly on top of its 200sma ..
Vix is still pushing pass 17.00 in the after hours..
If we gap down buy the dip will be the trade .. ✌
Comment:
Vix daily chart
Sitting right outside Daily channel and directly under 200ema/Sma.
Outside Daily bbands so the last thing I want to see is a tag of the 200ma which probably means we will go red on spy and QQQ today ,
The Double bottom pattern on the vix that played out is also completed ..
Max upside here without some black swan catalyst is 18.25 then I expect a pullback on vix..
Vix 1hour chart.. as you can see it's actually formed an uptrend and a channel.. once break the uptrendthen we can say for atleast today that the market has bottomed
Levels..
If we can pull back to 15.70 between today and Monday
The spy could see 435-436
Sitting right outside Daily channel and directly under 200ema/Sma.
Outside Daily bbands so the last thing I want to see is a tag of the 200ma which probably means we will go red on spy and QQQ today ,
The Double bottom pattern on the vix that played out is also completed ..
Max upside here without some black swan catalyst is 18.25 then I expect a pullback on vix..
Vix 1hour chart.. as you can see it's actually formed an uptrend and a channel.. once break the uptrendthen we can say for atleast today that the market has bottomed
Levels..
If we can pull back to 15.70 between today and Monday
The spy could see 435-436
Comment:
Tech or NQ is leading the way premarket .
Look at NQ 1hour chart
Small yellow channel .
Possible bear flag formed.
Needs to break to the upside to negate it.
Even if it just traded inside this channel that would mean so nasty price action for trading .
Look at NQ 1hour chart
Small yellow channel .
Possible bear flag formed.
Needs to break to the upside to negate it.
Even if it just traded inside this channel that would mean so nasty price action for trading .
Comment:
Es 1hour chart
Same flag channel as Nq.. if you swung longs , congratulations. Atleast place a tight stop at the open. Unless we break to the upside of this channel it is a bear flag.
Let's see what happens
Same flag channel as Nq.. if you swung longs , congratulations. Atleast place a tight stop at the open. Unless we break to the upside of this channel it is a bear flag.
Let's see what happens
Comment:
Vix got pushed down to 16.50 and bounced
I think it will retest 16.50 again, if it falls through, market will rally
..
I think it will retest 16.50 again, if it falls through, market will rally
..
Comment:
Stopped out on 255 Tsla calls for some lunch money.. very choppy was hoping for 257... I'll be back on in an hour.. Don't force it in this chop..
Comment:
Vix 2 hour chart..
3 black crows...
15.78
Is the next target.. if it breaks 15.78 spy will retest 438-439..
So have a tight stop on your calls or put around that pivot area
3 black crows...
15.78
Is the next target.. if it breaks 15.78 spy will retest 438-439..
So have a tight stop on your calls or put around that pivot area
Comment:
Just the beginning for the chip sector.. NVDA shouldn't be able to break back over 430
Daily smh sector
Daily smh sector
Comment:
Vix 15min... if you're a market bull , yoy want to see the Vix reject at 16.50 and form a right shoulder..
Back over 16.50 and today was just a pullback
Back over 16.50 and today was just a pullback
Comment:
If you look on the QQQ and SPY 5min chart double top..
Vix 5min double bottom
. No coincidence
Vix 5min double bottom
. No coincidence
Comment:
The Breadth of the market is going to get alot worse..
NYSE/NYA
Rising Wedge breached..
Spy will be going to 417 minimum
NYSE/NYA
Rising Wedge breached..
Spy will be going to 417 minimum
Comment:
Next support on QQQ is at 356.42..
Below that 349- 350
Below that 349- 350
Comment:
XLC
(GOOGL /Meta)
Out of all the tech sectors ,this one is late to the short party. I expect a bigger participation next week
(GOOGL /Meta)
Out of all the tech sectors ,this one is late to the short party. I expect a bigger participation next week
Bearish ascending showing
NQ daily
Sitting on support of bearish Rising wedge .
Will most likely break this to the downside this week. Immediate target on breach is
14,500 gap close