NaughtyPines

TRADE IDEA: SPY JUNE 17TH 193/196/212/215 IRON CONDOR

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
7 months ago
With VIX             above 15, I'm layering on some additional SPY             in the June monthly here ... .

Metrics:

Probability of Profit: 54%
P50: 71% (explained below)
Max Profit: $100/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $200/contract
Theta: 1.53/contract
Delta: -3.97

Notes: The overall probability of profit for the setup is quite low. However, the P50 -- the probability that the setup will reach 50% max profit sometime prior to expiry-- is 71%, which I'm more than satisfied with since I'm getting one-third the width of the spreads for the setup. The other thing is that I already have several iron condors on in that expiry, so I can "mix and match" the short call spreads of one iron condor with the short put spreads of another to peel them off should I want to do that at some point ... .
7 months ago
Comment: Chased price a bit; filled for $95/contract.
6 months ago
Comment: Covered today for a $49 debit, so netted $95 - $49 = $46/contract.
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