SPY BULLISH SCENARIO FOR NEXT 2 WEEKS

SPY looks similar to March 15 rally (green circles), if that's the case, it could test again 370 area before the take off.
The pivot point would be in the 395 area, if it can breach it and stay above, I expect rally in 416 area, retracment to 390, which would create C&H and then squeezy to 438 area.
From then, hard fall to sub 360.
Levels to watch (each one failure will bring us back to 200ema around 362)

392 (recent rejection)
397 resistance and daily 50ema
400 (psychological)
416 latest major resistance

I give it 50/50 of that to happen.
Bad news can trigger fall out at anytime, so its risky play.
day trades are most likely best scenario.

good luck to you all!

Comment:

On political front Russia has claimed victory and will enter into few weeks of rest. However i think it's silence before the storm and latest development (attack on Russian soil) can be a trigger to strong response in coming weeks.
This could be the black swan event forcing a capitulation on the market.

Comment:

Possible inverse H&S I pointed few days ago.