abigreen

SPY short and long term

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Version 1. (puke) gap up on Monday and then selloff to retest level of old resistance , which turned to support (short term support 377)
If that was the case it would form H&S and we may dump to 372 level.

Version 2. Gap down (378) and slow grind to 381, from there another leg down (I don't like this setup as it will put more confusion)

There is a chance it may go all the way down to next support 367 (2-3 red days) , which is major one, if that's the case I expect strong bounce and bull run to new ATH ($405)
I don't like Elliot , but its another indicator giving me higher probability of retracement.

Although market is bullish , I think next 3 days will be red.

Why Im bearish short term ?

Elliot
Possible H&S
15min strong divergence
Political unrest
High greed in the market
1h RSI is high
Bitcoin consolidation (sometimes there is correlation:)
Dollar is bouncing from the lows
In order to have a melt up run we need to consolidate at least 3-4%

If we gap up and stay above 382 then I'll go long until it reaches 400
If you zoom out, I sketched long term prediction.

MY Plan
I have position in VIX ,
in case gap down I will sale it and reload on the fib .38
If we gap up I will buy more VIX





Comment:
Comment: VIX is up 10% in pre, lets see if it can hold and then brake above 27
Comment: Most important level to watch for SPY is 378, if it brakes it and stays below its a strong bearish signal
Comment: Beautiful !
It broke 377 and bears took control.
As I said 2-3 days. depending how it closes, I expect another red day tomorrow.

Comments

V #2 dot for dot :)
+1 Reply
So nice work! Share more such ideas
+1 Reply
Brother continue to do beautiful work
+1 Reply
abigreen Carolcarr
@Carolcarr, Thank you
Reply
You've summed up my sentiment completely. We're double-bottoming on the VXX right now, and momentum is increasing. OBV has been rising steadily since mid-November. I think volatility is ready to warm up again. @ $16.35 its pretty bloody cheap. The uncertainty you've outlined leads me to believe volatility is the the lowest risk trade. Will be watching it very closely in the pre-market tomorrow.
+1 Reply
abigreen SLOPolarBear
@SLOPolarBear, It should be interesting tomorrow.
Yeah, VIX is holding...
Im in UVXY
+1 Reply
@abigreen, I love UVXY for momentum trades, but I hate holding it overnight due to the decay factor. When volatility is trending strong it's my favorite.
+1 Reply
abigreen SLOPolarBear
@SLOPolarBear, looks like it worked out nicely
Did you enter VXX ?
+1 Reply
@abigreen, I did, right at start of the pre-market hours. But I took profits before the close yesterday. It's looking like we're gong to range at these prices. May get a mid-week dip, but the money flow is running a bit too hot for anything significant.
Reply
abigreen SLOPolarBear
usually it's what I do as well, but got cut up with it on Wednesday ;)
+1 Reply
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