Time at Mode Concept at work here.
Find the maximum time at any one price, then once the market disconnects from that price by spending an entire period above it (or below) then expect a move by at least the range the market was in over the same amount of time AT THE MODE. Count only the bars that touch the mode, in other words.
All the best,
TIm 2:47PM 8/13/2014 Wednesday 194.76 last SPY