Expected Path (solid black):
- Drop to 396-401 by May 5th (this would mean a very bearish upcoming week - has the setup if SPY stays under 418, I'm seeing gap down next Monday and then sell off)
- Then bounce to test 408-412 by May 12th; if rejected under 412 then it will continue back down to 388-393 range by end of May
Most Bearish path - solid pink (head and shoulders break down, seeing distribution recently at the 410-415 levels):
- Drop to 385-388 by May 12th
- I'm in puts obviously because this is possible
More Likely Bearish path (dashed red)
- Drop to 398 - 402 by May 19th
- If 400 holds as support I'll become bullish
Alt Path - Bullish (dashed green)
- Run to 418-423 by May 11th, then pullback to test 414-416 for support
- If that were to play out then a break back above 423 could send it to 430 (in which case the bears would Still be able to smell the menstruation and it would get wrekd)
In summary, breakdown level is 401.48; breakout level is 422.99
I'm expecting SPY to be trading near 406 in July, but until then there will be tradable swings in the 380-430 range.
Regaurds
~ Brick.
- Drop to 396-401 by May 5th (this would mean a very bearish upcoming week - has the setup if SPY stays under 418, I'm seeing gap down next Monday and then sell off)
- Then bounce to test 408-412 by May 12th; if rejected under 412 then it will continue back down to 388-393 range by end of May
Most Bearish path - solid pink (head and shoulders break down, seeing distribution recently at the 410-415 levels):
- Drop to 385-388 by May 12th
- I'm in puts obviously because this is possible
More Likely Bearish path (dashed red)
- Drop to 398 - 402 by May 19th
- If 400 holds as support I'll become bullish
Alt Path - Bullish (dashed green)
- Run to 418-423 by May 11th, then pullback to test 414-416 for support
- If that were to play out then a break back above 423 could send it to 430 (in which case the bears would Still be able to smell the menstruation and it would get wrekd)
In summary, breakdown level is 401.48; breakout level is 422.99
I'm expecting SPY to be trading near 406 in July, but until then there will be tradable swings in the 380-430 range.
Regaurds
~ Brick.
Comment:
Grrr
Comment:
Next leg down - big sell off starting now (2:30pm 5/4)
Comment:
Perfect setup to begin downleg. WIll sell off hard following this fake spike (just like Dec. 2022).
If 401 breaksdown it will test 380s by June, if that breaksdown we are looking at 375 by mid June
If 401 breaksdown it will test 380s by June, if that breaksdown we are looking at 375 by mid June
Comment:
This is the point where you start selling equities and get balls deep in July puts
Comment:
Want to emphasize here that there is a good chance of a crash coming in June.
Updated target is SPY 370s by mid June, crash will start with a breakdown below 401 (likely a few days before June 1st X date).
This is ~10-12% drop from current levels. I'd recommend the 6/23 395 puts.
Updated target is SPY 370s by mid June, crash will start with a breakdown below 401 (likely a few days before June 1st X date).
This is ~10-12% drop from current levels. I'd recommend the 6/23 395 puts.
Comment:
I think its time.
Comment:
Repent.
Comment:
Target for end of week is 387-394. After that we will se attempt to regain 401-412 - if that fails its going to get hit to 366-375 by 6/23.
End goal by October-November 2023 is 339 (best case for bulls), but likely lower to 270-290.
Breakdown level is 421.
End goal by October-November 2023 is 339 (best case for bulls), but likely lower to 270-290.
Breakdown level is 421.
-Jobs data
-FOMC meeting
-Full Moon May 5th (creates major volatility in markets)