SPY down she goes - <330 <1year - listen to your chart, not CNBC
FA: Macro is grim, worldwide. Sources say both China and India governments are driving up gold prices buying it up; why do you want specie reserves as a government unless you expect global depression? The Baltic pipe is nice, but it only flows 1/5th of the capacity of Nord from what wiki says. Europe's in for a rough winter trying to get LNG without Nordstream. Pooty ain't giving up on his imperial ambitions yet.
No indication Fed will pivot anytime soon; amazing the media FUD renewed just like August. Jerry P didn't invoke Volcker to say "Oh we started too late, but some babies on the Street are crying, let's reverse course, Gram can afford 10% inflation on her fixed income." The Fed will try to save Main Street without fully depressing Wall, but we're in for pain - Bearome said as much. Fed futures aren't ruling out 100bps. Learned that fed has never pivoted with VIX less than 40. Watchout for FOMC minutes 10/12, CPI 10/13, then FOMC 11/2.
TA: Weekly sell vol accelerated after reversal Mon - Weds gains on Friday jobs / unemp. MACD convergence bearish since 9/12. While the weekly chart borders on inverted hammer, the dailies brought us back to 9/29, with a near 3% down day. Remember the 9/30 drop to a new year low? We'll be breaking 357 sooner than later, absent another dead cat FUD. There's lots of room for volatility between 352 and 327 too. Buyers on monthlies step in <300. Holiday / midterm rally possible, but RSI not oversold, room for new low of year. Do not expect pink line to continue.
PT <330 ~6 months. Through week's 6% rally, port down $28k at top. Made all but $5k of that back. Would have it all, but dumbly entered short weeklies, force closed them down (~20%) AH Friday. Even buying Monday open @ ~360 (after closing my shorts too early Friday while being battered by Ian in Myrtle Beach), most of my Novembers ended the week profitable. Buy yourself time if you're playing, it's insurance, and premium is too high right now. Good luck, vaya con dios.
No indication Fed will pivot anytime soon; amazing the media FUD renewed just like August. Jerry P didn't invoke Volcker to say "Oh we started too late, but some babies on the Street are crying, let's reverse course, Gram can afford 10% inflation on her fixed income." The Fed will try to save Main Street without fully depressing Wall, but we're in for pain - Bearome said as much. Fed futures aren't ruling out 100bps. Learned that fed has never pivoted with VIX less than 40. Watchout for FOMC minutes 10/12, CPI 10/13, then FOMC 11/2.
TA: Weekly sell vol accelerated after reversal Mon - Weds gains on Friday jobs / unemp. MACD convergence bearish since 9/12. While the weekly chart borders on inverted hammer, the dailies brought us back to 9/29, with a near 3% down day. Remember the 9/30 drop to a new year low? We'll be breaking 357 sooner than later, absent another dead cat FUD. There's lots of room for volatility between 352 and 327 too. Buyers on monthlies step in <300. Holiday / midterm rally possible, but RSI not oversold, room for new low of year. Do not expect pink line to continue.
PT <330 ~6 months. Through week's 6% rally, port down $28k at top. Made all but $5k of that back. Would have it all, but dumbly entered short weeklies, force closed them down (~20%) AH Friday. Even buying Monday open @ ~360 (after closing my shorts too early Friday while being battered by Ian in Myrtle Beach), most of my Novembers ended the week profitable. Buy yourself time if you're playing, it's insurance, and premium is too high right now. Good luck, vaya con dios.
