SPY: Potentially Topping

This idea will be a mute point at 8:30, we will know what direction the market wants to take, but thought I would share my observations.

So far SPY has remained true to my time series range I posted in my previous SPY idea. We hit the 365 target and have remained in the 360s to 370s range, mostly range bound in the 370s.

We remain within the regression downtrend.
The real time monthly bull targets remain outside of the regression channel and for SPY to reach these targets it would need to breakout to the upside.
With jobs data tomorrow, its quite possible it provides the catalyst to achieve this.
However, if that is not the case and SPY remains within this regression channel, we should be approaching the mathmatical low range by mid month, according to its current regression trend (see chart above).

I am kind of suspecting that the market is topping. Not only does every stock have this same toppy type pattern, but everything has reached the top of its monthly range and halted. I will share some examples of some of the stocks I have math ranges for:

AMZN

AMZN exceeded its weekly range, traced to the top of its regression channel and is in a pennant that it began to break down from in after hours today.
Traditionally, when AMZN exceeds its weekly range, it will snap back either within the week or the following week.

For reference, here is AMZN's weekly range:

AAPL


If you read my AAPL idea you would know, I was bullish on AAPL to the first bull target of the month. We have hit that twice and AAPL has painted a double top on, rejecting the top of its monthly range.

Not only is it printing a topping pattern but its also pretty much capped out on its monthly range and its only been 3 trading days into the month!

IWM

Identical setup for IWM. IWM has hit and rejected the first bull target of its monthly range and is also printing a fairly toppy type pattern.

MSFT


MSFT is actually on my short list.
It sort of attempted to break out of its downtrend; however, it has found hard resistance on its monthly bull range.
You see it made a pennant which it has broken down from in after hours. Likely AMD earnings served as a catalyst to break this down.



QQQ and SPY are really the only 2 things that have not hit their monthly high targets; however, their monthly high targets both require a break from their downtrend to attain:


Verdict:
The market may very well have topped here.
IT is bizarre to see this kind of aggressive move to the top of the monthly range so quickly. Generally, this type of move is not a sustainable move.
My thesis in my previous idea was a bounce to start the month off followed by a sell to end the month. However, I did not contemplate us reaching the monthly highs within the first 4 trading days of the month.
Timelines are being accelerated here, I don't foresee this being a nice and smooth month based on what we have seen so far. And we have repeated catalysts from earnings to CPI next week to jobs tomorrow.

Either way, this is just food for thought.
You will know what to do when you see how the market reacts at 8:30. Will we break up to the upside? Or break down to the downside?

I am not positioned either way. I was really tempted to short MSFT today because it has a lot of downside room to its bearish targets, but figured I would wait to see how jobs data plays out.


Good luck everyone and trade safe!