Warning: Bears too Gleeful!

Tracking the P/C ration over time, and looking at Tradingview ideas, it seems that sentiment is just too bearish - totally different than it was before most previous crashes - which usually happen on a touch of the lower trend line. I couldn't find a single long SPY idea on TradingView for the past 48 hours. That means a crash this week is highly unlikely (though nothing is impossible - September/October 2018 was also fairly bearish near an actual top).

My mid term target remains 4090 (see below), but I also believe we have started the topping process (see both attached) and am short a bunch of bottom feeder Robinhood garbage: SPACs, ARKK, and Electric Vehicle scams. That said, price and volume are weak, and our 4090 topping could well fail on a break below 3880, so I am more Neutral than Bullish.

Comment:

This buying is weak - in the past we would've been exploring 3940 already - but we are just high enough to screw over some Wednesday put holders. It'll be very interesting to see if EITHER 3940 or 3900 gets taken out in power hour today.

I would not blame you for going short if we were to lose 3900 again EOD, or long above 3940.