The SPY has been experiencing the same struggle as the QQQ ever since it broke below the 9SMA on Sept 13 and has failed to get back above it.
Things to note:
- Broke back down & below BF channel (bearish)
- 9SMA curling down (bearish)
- Bounce target #1 gap fill @ $390
- Bounce target #2 9SMA resistance @ $393
- Bear target #1 gap @ $377.80
- Bear target # 2 & 3 gap @ $365 & re-test June low
We didn't quite fill the gap @ $390 from Friday's open, so I'd be looking for that as a first major bounce target if the market decides to pump tomorrow morning before/with the FED. IF that target is met, expect a test of the 9SMA & BF channel @ $395ish. I'd be very surprised if we broke those resistances but hey, lots of things have surprised me over the years (keep an open mind).
As always, my LT thesis has NOT changed. This market is bearish from a technical perspective. Things can change, but so far, they have not.
Be cautious of head-fakes here and be careful with hype. I see people saying that a 0.75 BPS hike is most probable AND priced into the market already. That is NOT a hill I am willing to die on and sounds a lot like the "insiders" who told us that U.S. CPI data was coming down in August.
Stay safe folks.
Things to note:
- Broke back down & below BF channel (bearish)
- 9SMA curling down (bearish)
- Bounce target #1 gap fill @ $390
- Bounce target #2 9SMA resistance @ $393
- Bear target #1 gap @ $377.80
- Bear target # 2 & 3 gap @ $365 & re-test June low
We didn't quite fill the gap @ $390 from Friday's open, so I'd be looking for that as a first major bounce target if the market decides to pump tomorrow morning before/with the FED. IF that target is met, expect a test of the 9SMA & BF channel @ $395ish. I'd be very surprised if we broke those resistances but hey, lots of things have surprised me over the years (keep an open mind).
As always, my LT thesis has NOT changed. This market is bearish from a technical perspective. Things can change, but so far, they have not.
Be cautious of head-fakes here and be careful with hype. I see people saying that a 0.75 BPS hike is most probable AND priced into the market already. That is NOT a hill I am willing to die on and sounds a lot like the "insiders" who told us that U.S. CPI data was coming down in August.
Stay safe folks.