timwest
Short

SPY showing signs of toppiness

BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
3984 38 24
FORECAST:

Choppy to lower prices ahead.

1. Low readings on VIX             imply that investors are complacent. A spike in VIX             up 5 points would create a tradable bottom for 3-5 days.

2. Crude Oil             is at the high end of its historical range and it has a lagged, negative effect on the overall stock market.

3. The long slide in metals, specifically silver             , shows that investors have thrown away their silver             together with their bonds. After stocks outperform relative to metals, it is wise to expect a different tune for at least a month or two.

4. Earnings yields are at their lowest levels in 20 years relative to 12-month trailing returns on assets in the S&P500             . The median return on the S&P500             is roughly a 3.5% return on assets. That is not worth taking the risk of a 20%-40% decline the value of your holdings in order to return 3.5%. More on this in later updates.

I wish I could tighten the stop closer, but using roughly 3 average daily trading ranges is about as tight as I am comfortable with. If we see a spike up in VIX             of 5 points, I would recommend cutting the short position and re-positioning on a bounce.

Tim 2:15 PM EST, Wednesday, August 14, 2013            
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
That works
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Dear Timwest
Do you remember me ?

... Fed Wins

:)
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Totally agree with your analysis . Using a 63 lagging MA is something I had not seen before. Its amazing how it works out.
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Amazing how you analyze fundamental information with technical info and get it right.
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It would have been helpful to have this email arrive BEFORE today's trading, instead of AFTER, as the Dow and SPY tumbled (the Dow down over 200 points).
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timwest PRO Ed-LEd-L
Hello "Ed-LEd-L", sorry if you received the chart much later than when I posted it just after 2:15 PM EST (note on the chart "Tim 2:15 PM EST, Wednesday, August 14, 2013"). I wonder if you can change your settings so you receive chart updates immediately. Another idea is to check into Tradingview each day before the close, perhaps at 3:45PM EST, to see if there are any interesting trades that you could consider taking or exiting. Wishing you the best. Tim

PS - I put an alarm on my phone that rings to alert me each trading day just before the close, just in case I am away from the market or get side-tracked. Hope this helps.
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nice chart from one day ago man ... close to this crazy idea from ... 10 days ago ;)))
Hanging Man ...
, what is your comments ... welcome here
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admin PRO martinex
Nice. Did you actually sell short?
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any my ideas are following with real trades , SL also ;) ... time to bed , GN
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admin PRO martinex
Good trade. GN and take care.
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