SPY showing signs of toppiness

3993 38 24

Choppy to lower prices ahead.

1. Low readings on VIX             imply that investors are complacent. A spike in VIX             up 5 points would create a tradable bottom for 3-5 days.

2. Crude Oil             is at the high end of its historical range and it has a lagged, negative effect on the overall stock market.

3. The long slide in metals, specifically silver             , shows that investors have thrown away their silver             together with their bonds. After stocks outperform relative to metals, it is wise to expect a different tune for at least a month or two.

4. Earnings yields are at their lowest levels in 20 years relative to 12-month trailing returns on assets in the S&P500             . The median return on the S&P500             is roughly a 3.5% return on assets. That is not worth taking the risk of a 20%-40% decline the value of your holdings in order to return 3.5%. More on this in later updates.

I wish I could tighten the stop closer, but using roughly 3 average daily trading ranges is about as tight as I am comfortable with. If we see a spike up in VIX             of 5 points, I would recommend cutting the short position and re-positioning on a bounce.

Tim 2:15 PM EST, Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
That works
Dear Timwest
Do you remember me ?

... Fed Wins

Totally agree with your analysis . Using a 63 lagging MA is something I had not seen before. Its amazing how it works out.
Amazing how you analyze fundamental information with technical info and get it right.
It would have been helpful to have this email arrive BEFORE today's trading, instead of AFTER, as the Dow and SPY tumbled (the Dow down over 200 points).
timwest Ed-LEd-L
Hello "Ed-LEd-L", sorry if you received the chart much later than when I posted it just after 2:15 PM EST (note on the chart "Tim 2:15 PM EST, Wednesday, August 14, 2013"). I wonder if you can change your settings so you receive chart updates immediately. Another idea is to check into Tradingview each day before the close, perhaps at 3:45PM EST, to see if there are any interesting trades that you could consider taking or exiting. Wishing you the best. Tim

PS - I put an alarm on my phone that rings to alert me each trading day just before the close, just in case I am away from the market or get side-tracked. Hope this helps.
nice chart from one day ago man ... close to this crazy idea from ... 10 days ago ;))) , what is your comments ... welcome here
admin martinex
Nice. Did you actually sell short?
any my ideas are following with real trades , SL also ;) ... time to bed , GN
admin martinex
Good trade. GN and take care.
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