What's up bots, friends, and turds - I share this with you, stocktwits peepz, all you sexy strangers, and of course, the much revered , elite pedos .....(It's unclear whether Ghislaine Maxwell actually has covid or is already dead...but Epstein didn't kill himself so we gotta watch this chick).
I don't want to get bogged down in the weeds ;), but we are literally sitting in a pile of shit with these tanker stocks. Scorpio, of course, doesn't own VLCC's and doesn't benefit from the crude tanker market or any uptick in oil storage capacity issues. We are a refined petrol transporter and we have a mighty fine fleet. Some might say best in class fleet, definitely the youngest average and many retrofitted with scrubbers already for IMO 2020; a C- management who I find to be aligned with shareholders. Fundamentally, the market is ripe for a sustained uptick in clean tanker rates... Right now, lower rates should cause scrapping of ships for those companies that might need the cash to fund operations... I'm not privvy to the specific scrapping. Anyway, the total fleet shrinks because of aging ships/scrapping; we have a super low order book, meaning the rate of replacement is not going to be sufficient to account for any unexpected/increased demand for moving of clean products.
Downside? Fucking covid19 and the closure of the world and total slowing of business, economy, and petrol demand (and refined product demand). Another downside risk, which no one else is talking about, is the shutting down of 1/3 of all previously traveled tanker routes (I'm not 100% versed on this but suffice to say its something we need to look into collectively to understand the downside risk we otherwise may not have considered). These routes might never going to come back online - definitely not until we have 100% back to normal recovery in demand - but even then, maybe never... Then there is also always the potential for accounting issues and straight up fraud (THESE ARE TANKERS, NOT US BASED, and ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN). They are not GAAP Accounting practices, so we need to be more vigilant in reviewing any filed docs to find the turds in the reports.
This covid19 bullshit is fundamentally changing life on this entire planet and the way we operate globally, regionally, country, state, city, etc. COVID19 is definitely causing us to see lower prices on the spot rates for LR1/ 2s and MRs and Handymax, although we did get SEXY ASS rates for Q2 2020 and our upcoming ER is going to show that. The immediate risk is continued lower rates with another storm on the horizon (more closures and reduced demand further??). But I trust a free market to balance itself out and think STNG is primed to take advantage of the upcoming market conditions which favor increased rates, and on a sustained multi-year basis, which could make this company a 5-10 bagger in the next 3-5 years.
The good? We made money Q2 2020 to pay for operations for 1-2 years even if rates stay low. Q3 2020 rates are believed to be higher than Q3 2019, but they show a loss for Q3 2019 so I'm not sure how good that is. From what I can tell, whether or not we are going to be profitable, and to what extent we are, will likely be shared on the earnings call (if this isn't discussed, it might be a total shit show of a quarter and it's probably why we are priced where we are...::idea?::...). So rates can't stay this low forever, unless there is a just utter breakdown of the petrol refineries and the entire world economy just goes to shit. I just can't really see that happening and with the world coming back online, oil demand is picking back up (thinking like 70% demand recovery might be something I saw, but I also make shit up... so DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH).
TECHNICALLY: This is a technical nightmare shit show; but I think we are seeing decent bottoming/consolidation happening at 52wk Lows. This looks ugly, but not ugly to someone who is buying right now in 12s. I recall people calling for 10s and the way this exponentially shit the bed along with the SPY makes me ponder BIGLY. MY OWN PERSONAL BIASED OPINION is that there is a strong potential for a reversal over the next 2 months to $20-$23 and even beyond. The last wave we saw in March took about 6 weeks and got you about 125%+ return if you bought at the low. ONE DAY THIS TURD WILL TURN INTO a DIAMOND. Just not anytime soon.
I think in terms of technical indicators and personal pattern recognition, there is a STRONG thesis for a push above 17 and closer to $20 within the next 6-8 weeks (maybe even 10 weeks). Something is different about the state of this stock today... We aren't as volatile (although we are still volatile). It looks defeated. That's why I put a limit order in @ 12.54 to add to my position and it filled. The only thing I see is capitulation has not happened... and my personal belief is that it will not happen, but a longer consolidation may occur before any reversion to the lines.
Side Note: Other people are starting to see the value here and I think we will start seeing consistent green days once they turn on the "buy" spicket on the algos holding this thing down
IN SUMMARY:
1) I own a shitload of this stock.
2) I am absolutely biased and if you blind-follow me into this trade you are dumb AF.
3) Do your own due diligence.
4) 60-80% upside by September, and if you buy here, watch closely for a sustained break of the line I drew - that would be bad... Like $8 downside bad bc this shit is on crack.
LAST WORD:
Most of the original pumpers from back in April have sold out and turned bearish ... Which is just ironic. It goes to show you that you can't trust anyone on the internet.
This thing is going lower short term, likely getting into my BTFTU level and my predictive curve shows continued consolidation before a steep rise as summer comes to an end.
PLACE YOUR BETS ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS THE RICH PERSONS CASINO - AND FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD.
I don't want to get bogged down in the weeds ;), but we are literally sitting in a pile of shit with these tanker stocks. Scorpio, of course, doesn't own VLCC's and doesn't benefit from the crude tanker market or any uptick in oil storage capacity issues. We are a refined petrol transporter and we have a mighty fine fleet. Some might say best in class fleet, definitely the youngest average and many retrofitted with scrubbers already for IMO 2020; a C- management who I find to be aligned with shareholders. Fundamentally, the market is ripe for a sustained uptick in clean tanker rates... Right now, lower rates should cause scrapping of ships for those companies that might need the cash to fund operations... I'm not privvy to the specific scrapping. Anyway, the total fleet shrinks because of aging ships/scrapping; we have a super low order book, meaning the rate of replacement is not going to be sufficient to account for any unexpected/increased demand for moving of clean products.
Downside? Fucking covid19 and the closure of the world and total slowing of business, economy, and petrol demand (and refined product demand). Another downside risk, which no one else is talking about, is the shutting down of 1/3 of all previously traveled tanker routes (I'm not 100% versed on this but suffice to say its something we need to look into collectively to understand the downside risk we otherwise may not have considered). These routes might never going to come back online - definitely not until we have 100% back to normal recovery in demand - but even then, maybe never... Then there is also always the potential for accounting issues and straight up fraud (THESE ARE TANKERS, NOT US BASED, and ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN). They are not GAAP Accounting practices, so we need to be more vigilant in reviewing any filed docs to find the turds in the reports.
This covid19 bullshit is fundamentally changing life on this entire planet and the way we operate globally, regionally, country, state, city, etc. COVID19 is definitely causing us to see lower prices on the spot rates for LR1/ 2s and MRs and Handymax, although we did get SEXY ASS rates for Q2 2020 and our upcoming ER is going to show that. The immediate risk is continued lower rates with another storm on the horizon (more closures and reduced demand further??). But I trust a free market to balance itself out and think STNG is primed to take advantage of the upcoming market conditions which favor increased rates, and on a sustained multi-year basis, which could make this company a 5-10 bagger in the next 3-5 years.
The good? We made money Q2 2020 to pay for operations for 1-2 years even if rates stay low. Q3 2020 rates are believed to be higher than Q3 2019, but they show a loss for Q3 2019 so I'm not sure how good that is. From what I can tell, whether or not we are going to be profitable, and to what extent we are, will likely be shared on the earnings call (if this isn't discussed, it might be a total shit show of a quarter and it's probably why we are priced where we are...::idea?::...). So rates can't stay this low forever, unless there is a just utter breakdown of the petrol refineries and the entire world economy just goes to shit. I just can't really see that happening and with the world coming back online, oil demand is picking back up (thinking like 70% demand recovery might be something I saw, but I also make shit up... so DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH).
TECHNICALLY: This is a technical nightmare shit show; but I think we are seeing decent bottoming/consolidation happening at 52wk Lows. This looks ugly, but not ugly to someone who is buying right now in 12s. I recall people calling for 10s and the way this exponentially shit the bed along with the SPY makes me ponder BIGLY. MY OWN PERSONAL BIASED OPINION is that there is a strong potential for a reversal over the next 2 months to $20-$23 and even beyond. The last wave we saw in March took about 6 weeks and got you about 125%+ return if you bought at the low. ONE DAY THIS TURD WILL TURN INTO a DIAMOND. Just not anytime soon.
I think in terms of technical indicators and personal pattern recognition, there is a STRONG thesis for a push above 17 and closer to $20 within the next 6-8 weeks (maybe even 10 weeks). Something is different about the state of this stock today... We aren't as volatile (although we are still volatile). It looks defeated. That's why I put a limit order in @ 12.54 to add to my position and it filled. The only thing I see is capitulation has not happened... and my personal belief is that it will not happen, but a longer consolidation may occur before any reversion to the lines.
Side Note: Other people are starting to see the value here and I think we will start seeing consistent green days once they turn on the "buy" spicket on the algos holding this thing down
IN SUMMARY:
1) I own a shitload of this stock.
2) I am absolutely biased and if you blind-follow me into this trade you are dumb AF.
3) Do your own due diligence.
4) 60-80% upside by September, and if you buy here, watch closely for a sustained break of the line I drew - that would be bad... Like $8 downside bad bc this shit is on crack.
LAST WORD:
Most of the original pumpers from back in April have sold out and turned bearish ... Which is just ironic. It goes to show you that you can't trust anyone on the internet.
This thing is going lower short term, likely getting into my BTFTU level and my predictive curve shows continued consolidation before a steep rise as summer comes to an end.
PLACE YOUR BETS ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS THE RICH PERSONS CASINO - AND FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD.