T
Analysis is based on simplified SMC concepts.
Price has consistently broken bearish structure and maintaining Lower Lows and Lower Highs. The "Strong" high of $20.50 is considered the trade idea invalidation point. Any break and close on the weekly or daily timeframes above $20.50 would invalidate this trade idea. Any trades taken in the premium zone (above the 50% of the fibo) would be ideal. This is a great supply zone that has high probability to hold. I personally prefer trade opportunities between 62% - 89% in a pullback.
Reward to Risk ratios could vary between 3:1 up to great than 10:1 depending on the instrument you are trading.
If you are trading stock CFDs :
4 positions between the 62% pullback($17.81) and the 89% pullback($19.72) would be ideal.
Exits:
1st = $13.43
2nd = $11.52
**Split your positions between the 2 suggested exits**
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If you are trading stock options:
NO less than a 6 or 7 month expiration!
Sep 14th Expiration - Buy PUTS between $14-$15
ideally 4+ positions
If you need an options calculator, I suggest using: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/short-put.html
Exits:
(STRIKE price)
1st = $13.43
2nd = $11.52
**Split your positions between the 2 suggested exits**
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If you are Shorting the underlying instrument (T):
4 positions between $17.81-$19.72 would be ideal
Exits:
1st = $13.43
2nd = $11.52
**Split your positions between the 2 suggested exits**
The Path tool shows a general anticipation of order flow.
The dashed fibo retracement tool is for the Daily Time frame.
The solid fibo retracement tool is for the Weekly Time frame.