The Fresh Market - Weekly - 50% Off Sale - Buy

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Bargain? On-sale: 50% off the highest price! I generally like to see TFM             get "beaten up" and then I take another look at it and see if I can buy it in the bargain bin, where it is today, nearly 50% off of its highest levels in the last year.

I've listened to previous conference calls after earnings reports and the research from the company was simply that "consumers that shop at The Fresh Market are not price conscious". They want quality in a nice environment and that's what they get at TFM             .

The valuation has come down a long way and the market cap is finally less than the sales. Put another way, the steadily growing revenues now finally have surpassed the market cap. The dividend yield is at 2.85%, which is the highest in the public history of the stock and represents decent yield support. The company shows consistent after-tax profitability. So, when I see a stock at HALF-PRICE and solid valuation with consistent growth and a near-term disappointed shareholder voting with despair and dumping shares 50% off levels seen in the last year, then I take notice and want to get involved.

Further posts on the daily chart will outline a way into TFM             shares. For long term traders, this is a place to get started. Risk 1 weekly range (average of last 10 weeks). Target, hold for 1 year or 30% return.
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I see you did your DD on this one, but then - why is it down 50% and why is it going lower? It is indeed a bargain and the markets picked up a bit recently - why is this one diving still?
The decline from the highs is a function of it being horrifically overvalued by growth investors who were paying 2.5 times rational valuation levels based on monstrous growth. As growth estimates have been tempered and earnings have missed expectations, growth investors have rushed for the exits. This is the rotation we have seen in the market, out with growth and in with anything else (utilities, technology, semiconductors, oil, oil service, etc.) The profit margins have dropped and expectations are down. Note that sales have surged from 1B to 1.5%, or 50% in the past 3 years.
2use timwest
Sounds like a good explanation, but i wonder why this did not star the buying at the 2011 strong support. It did bounce of it recently once and then breached it to new low. For now i see a new low, so would you suggest buying on a dip after a new high? I do agree that this is a good time to enter for a long term, but getting in is best when seeing a good entry position on the short term as well. are you planning on taking a position looking at a weekly chart, i.e already took it? or will you be checking lower grain analysis? if so, would you be able to share the idea once you see a good entry point? I would research the company now as you sparked my interest in it, but i would rather take more views in account on an entry point at this moment.
Sorry I didn't reply to this question/comment. I'm wondering if this nice 13% gain in 9 days is worth taking here.
Made some small updates on your idea, provided all the props to yours ;)
TFM - looking for an entry point on great discount
Last time I checked, TFM does not pay out a dividend... not too sure why TradingView is showing that it does.
+1 Reply
I checked Finviz.com and you are correct that it doesn't show a dividend. That weakens my argument for this as a buy signal, but only a little. It could strengthen my resolve too as people sell stocks faster when they don't have a dividend when they are in a free fall or a 50% decline. If you watch your stock price plunge, a rational person should think, "Will this affect the company's ability to pay or grow its dividend over time?" and "Is this an opportunity to buy more shares in a good quality company?". So, I'll let TradingView know that there was an error in the data on this issue and feel free to check any other stocks you follow closely to see if you see anything else wrong. Thanks for your comment @DavideG DavideG.
Sad to say but TimWest doesn't really know what he's talking about. He is correct about going long, but other than that...good lord his explanation is pretty bad.
-2 Reply
2use poko22
Exactly which sentence you don't understand?:)
Feel free to correct anything "wrong". I'm not perfect. You are also welcome to post your own chart with your own explanation. Feel free to share a point of view related to facts. What do I not know? Why is my explanation pretty bad?
I commented about the error about the dividend, which the data shows it has, but at other sites like http://www.nasdaq.com shows there is no dividend.
Good news: I like to see some votes of confidence: The Chairman, Ray D Berry, purchased 435,000 shares in The Fresh Market between May 29th and June 2 at an average price of $30.47, which is $13.3 Million worth. Source: Form 4 SEC Filing
2use timwest
aaaaaand it goes up 5%:)
+1 Reply
What a great return for such a short period of time. If they all could work this well. Good team work TradingView.
2use timwest
Im mostly checking news and only at some times get the chance to post an idea. Im trying not to post all ideas and vague ones, but i am not yet doing this full time. Still, i pay a great deal of attention to your charts as you are in the the top of user list that i arranged statistically due to the Hits the charts make :) spot on :)
+1 Reply
I'd love to see your statistical analysis of "hits". Back when we used to have a "BULLSEYE" vote for a chart, I used to be in the 25% range for dead-on trades. But that stat disappeared, probably because.... well.... we can guess why that disappeared. Thanks for your comments 2use. I appreciate that you don't want to clog up the airwaves with tons of ideas. I think if you can boil it down to either 1/day or 1/week and put a good hour into finding and making a chart, then I think you will get a big return on your investment in your learning. All the best, Tim
Is it looking at making a double bottom now?
+1 Reply
Yes. Note my new chart today.
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