Tilray ($TLRY) 4.20 and beyond

NASDAQ:TLRY   Tilray Brands, Inc.
Looks like a massive ZigZag has finished on Tilray. C-Wave is pretty much exactly .786 the length of the A-Wave (in log).

If the impulse from the low is completed, it's a bit too early to call for a completed correction, though not entirely impossible, if this finishes as a Zigzag down (meaning we're currently in the C-wave). Timewise it would seem too short though, so this might need a bit more time to offer the next long.
Looks like a first ZigZag could've finished. Hitting Pitchfork Median, Lower channel boundary with a 1:1 ratio (everything in log).

Currently still within the Pitchfork. As previously mentioned, having this as a completed correction, while not impossible, is less likely, because it's a bit short in time. The correction could continue as a sharp multizigzag after retracing upwards or as a sideways correction that tests the high again before going lower.
Nice move up on decent volume. If it keeps holding and doesn't get denied quickly, it certainly would give more credence to the ZigZag having been the full correction:

If not, the previously mentioned sideways correction possibilities:

And here's another possibility, which would have the initial impulse only finishing with this move:

EWO seems to be partial to this previously mentioned variant

I believe pretty much all scenarios I've mentioned are still on the table

If it plays out as a corrective like this

The originaly anticipated sideways correction

The most bullish immediate scenario

This count puts us just at the start of a correction, so if the above correction holds, it might just be the first part of a correction (similar expectations as with the previous high)

New scenario, that I didn't have before, a diag:

Gave the reaction from the shown zone for a 15% move, but broke the zone afterwards.

Diag up is off the table and the uber bullish count seems highly unlikely at this point.

Seems like the EWO did not lie then :)

So main assumption now would be that we finished something at either of those highs.

ZigZag in white, impulse in yellow to finish at the absolute high.

In that case the issue is a bit that the first move down looks like an impulse. "Issue" in the sense, that we're unlikely to be done anywhere here.
ZigZag in orange, impulse in red. Either might just be the first leg of the correction, if it is a correction (more to that further below).

Now for the bullish hopium, you'de have to switch to line chart... then you could argue a flat correction (which would go along with the initial idea of this whole setup, when I posted it) or different kinds of sideways corrections, which could also turn sooner with just a 3 wave move from the high on the line chart).

That's all I can see for the bullish case at this point (other than the unlikely looking 1-2 1-2 case with a very deep second 2...)

So... onward to the bearish cases

ZigZag in white and impulse in red (from 3 charts up) might also reach new all-time lows! For example we could have plenty of the higher degree wave 5 still to go, which wouldn't be great, since it could take a while.

And even the impulse up, could be the C-wave of a wave 4 flat, which would be quite massive, granted, but something to keep in mind:

Certainly looks like it might be close to finishing an impulse here, if not finished already. Whether that is the last move will remain to be seen

Alternatively we might still be in a sideways wave 4 with the wave 5 yet to come.
Depending on where you'd want to place the end of wave 4, you could argue a diag, that's not done yet for the wave 5:

or like this, where the 5 could be done (would be rather small then) or not, "worst" case that's just the wave 1 of the 5, leaving quite a bit more room down

That's for the mentioned more immediate bullish scenarios.
Nothing in particular has changed (other than me catching covid after dodging it for 4 years...), so I'm just updating the previously shown possibilities with how it developed so far.

The bullish view with the flat in line chart could be done, though it's a bit early to fully call it.

Without having to go to line chart, there's this bullish count:

And in case of a bearish impulse down, we'd likely still be missing a move down:

I do not have any new ideas from an EW perspective, pretty much all that I've considered and is still possible I've already posted. Unfortunetly even with the (mid-term) most bullish possibility of a flat correction, there is no lower limit, so as long as the low holds, it'll stay valid.

EW aside, we're very close to an open GAP here:

So, sure looks like it just wanted to close that gap mentioned in the previous update, huh? Closed it and gave a good reaction (well, most of the market did, so that's that...). We have a higher high now and here's a fun little bonus pitchfork:

Will have to see how it develops from here now.

There are still bearish views on the table. Compare with the update from Sep 19. We could just have finished that impulse from the top, which as a C-wave of a flat would be fantastically bullish. On the other hand it could also just be an A-wave down for something like that diag on the fully white count (third image in the Sep 19 update).


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