TLT study, big picture makes direction more clear

A study of the time frames involved in the oil drops of 2008, 2011, 2012, and now reveal... percentage drop versus time frame... 2008: 77% in 225 days, now working on a 66% drop in 188 days. If we repeat the duration of this oil correction, (Big IF) then we hold here and go up from here. Those saying we dip to 30 OIL are wrong. The BIG DIFFERENCE is there was NO QE then, and we have QE now. Fracking now, no fracking supplies then. With the world contracting, how can commodities rise, and actually use more oil. Will the supply dwindle quickly so much as to create demand where there is no increase in use? (Oil worker's strike - not enough - opec finally cut production - thats a whole nother story) SPY did not correct with oil this time, due to QE and ________ ? Currency wars, relative to the central banks are A MAJOR FACTOR, and we can read about it later in history books. Note the TLT action at the black vertical lines, which is where I think we were then and now relatively. Looking at the weekly here has changed my mind of direction of TLT. I am not sure if TLT and SPY will correlate or diverse. This time, possibly, if oil rises, could negate any good effects lower prices had on US economy consumer spending short lived bump. GOLD players calling as much for a decline from here as a rise 50/50 IMO. Not sure myself. MY VXX charts say we go to lower VOL to supports short term, which means SPY may enjoy a short lived bump here. The only thing I can take from all this, is TLT follows history here, consolidates, and goes lower re the chart. That channel is very real, and hitting the top TL was a major rejection and momentum has room to go lower and wants to. I think Yellen continues the dovish spin on everything. We are in an election phase in the US, and if the market falls, the dems will loose, so its QE all over again, buy those bonds, print that money, do whatever it takes to support this market. Lets see what Yellen says.