A potential drop of at least 10% to the total market cap
The recent events with
LUNAUSDT
has created a spiral down that wiped off over 400B from the total marketcap while the supply of UST only dropped by 7B.
At the time of this post, there's still 11.78B UST in circulation. Knowing that traditional banks use a fractional reserve ratio of 1:10, that's a potentital extra 117.8B wiped off the market, or around 10%. Because of the magnitude of the depeg, I don't believe that the Terra ecosystem will be able to recover and there should be a greater selloff(of over 10%) that might also affect other stablecoins by association once the system fully dies.
For example, the controversial USDT has already lost its peg but quickly recovered:
DAI, another stablecoin which works in a similar but safer way, has lost over a billion in marketcap already.
Another factor would be the amount of exposure the whole ecosystem has. Currently, there's around 2.2B locked in the Anchor protocol. This number will eventually hit 0. Then there's also 300m locked in the Mirror protocol that would also go to 0.
BTCUSDT
mid term price target: 18k
TOTAL
short term target: 1.1T
TOTAL
mid term target: 600B
Because
MKRUSDT
works in a similar way as
LUNAUSDT
for DAI, I am also bearish on it:
MKRUSDT
mid term price target: 600
LUNAUSDT
has created a spiral down that wiped off over 400B from the total marketcap while the supply of UST only dropped by 7B.
At the time of this post, there's still 11.78B UST in circulation. Knowing that traditional banks use a fractional reserve ratio of 1:10, that's a potentital extra 117.8B wiped off the market, or around 10%. Because of the magnitude of the depeg, I don't believe that the Terra ecosystem will be able to recover and there should be a greater selloff(of over 10%) that might also affect other stablecoins by association once the system fully dies.
For example, the controversial USDT has already lost its peg but quickly recovered:
Another factor would be the amount of exposure the whole ecosystem has. Currently, there's around 2.2B locked in the Anchor protocol. This number will eventually hit 0. Then there's also 300m locked in the Mirror protocol that would also go to 0.
BTCUSDT
mid term price target: 18k
TOTAL
short term target: 1.1T
TOTAL
mid term target: 600B Because
MKRUSDT
works in a similar way as
LUNAUSDT
for DAI, I am also bearish on it:
MKRUSDT
mid term price target: 600
Turns out that the damage done is way bigger than I've anticipated, because of exposure and leverage via lending platforms and yield farms.
Celsius lost 500m UST from its exposure. People are doing a bank run. STETH losing its peg because withdrawals are locked.
Some of Celsius' notable positions:
-WBTC
-ETH
-LINK
I'm short on those until the market stabilizes.