XBTFX

CRYPTO week ahead: March 27 – April 2

CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL   Crypto Total Market Cap, $
Last week in the news

Markets were digesting all events from the previous period during the previous week. The fear about another banking crisis is still in the air. At the same time FED increased interest rates for another 25 bps, despite some opinions that it will further negatively affect the banking sector. The EU equities market was closed in red on Friday, amid negative news surrounding German Deutsche bank, while US equities remained relatively flat compared to the week before. The crypto market continues with gains, but at the lower pace from the week before. Bitcoin is finishing the week struggling to hold $28K, while Ether holds a $1.750 resistance line.

The minute we thought that the dust over the collapsing banks was over, the end of the week brought another news related to the largest German Deutsche bank. The issue is that nobody actually knows what is going on with the bank, but the panic in the news started the moment when spreads on credit default swaps for this bank started to widen as of the end of the previous week. After that, a sale of bank shares started, so the price slid by 14%. The bank did not comment on the latest developments, however both Olaf Scholz, a German Chancellor and Christine Lagarde, a President of ECB, were giving statements, ensuring that there is no any sort of issue with bank`s liquidity and solvency. Analysts are mentioning that the latest move on the market is triggered by contingency fears from recently collapsed Credit Suisse, but the issue here is, why exactly at this moment is such a correction occuring, as issues with the Swiss bank lasted for a few weeks? This is certainly one important news to watch closely, considering the size of the Deutsche bank and its significant global presence.

It seems that the US passed its banking crisis, however, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a House panel that additional actions could be taken by the US Treasury in case that American`s deposits are in some cases jeopardized. During the previous day, she also noted to the US senators about a plan to insure all U.S. bank deposits, however, it should not be done without an approval from Congress.

During the previous week there has finally been some news from the crypto industry. Namely, leaders of the crypto industry told CNBC that they are not happy with the current gray zone of the regulation, which the SEC is trying to impose, but instead they would be much happier with a clear guidance from U.S. government and regulators. This comes after the SEC sent another notice to the Coinbase, noting that they are potentially violating the U.S. securities law. At the same time, the US indeed is lagging behind many other countries on setting up the clear rules for the crypto industry.

While the US is still not sure whether it wants crypto or not, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, stated that he intends to propose the bill by which all taxes on both software and hardware innovations will be eliminated in the country. El Salvador's President Bukele was the first president of one country who introduced Bitcoin as a legal tender.

The National Bank of the United Arab Emirates made an announcement over the finalization of the first phase in its currency strategy by mid-2024, by which the country will introduce its own digital currency – a digital Dirham. The first phase is expected to be finalized within the next 12 to 15 months.

Crypto market cap

Banks were in the spotlight of the market for the second week in a row. News are moving from the collapsed ones to the potential banks which might fall under difficulties due to contingencies of the fallen ones. Important event during the previous week was FED`s further increase of reference interest rates by another 25 bps. Market analysts speculated if the FED would continue with further rate increases, considering that strong shifts in interest rates are hurting banking liquidity and solvency capacities. The bottom line was that FED continued with its policy of breaking down the inflation, while Treasury Secretary Yellen, was the one responsible for calming down the market with wording over potential insurance of all American deposits. Of course, it is clear that the rhetoric is aimed to calm the markets, and most importantly, to stop deposits outflow from banks. Although the crypto market had an extremely good week two weeks ago, during the previous week the situation calmed a bit with the relatively mixed performance. Total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat compared to the week before. Daily trading volumes were decreased to the levels of $72B on a daily basis, from $135B a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year still holds at level of 49% , where it has added a total $369B to the market cap.

Crypto coins were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. Bitcoin is still leading the market to the upside, with weekly gain in the market cap of $4B or 0.7%. Ether finished the previous week in red, losing $4,5B in the market cap or 2%. BNB was another main coin which did not manage to sustain previously reached capitalization levels, due, its market cap was decreased by $2B or 4% within a week. XRP again had a good week, by adding $4B to its total capitalization and surging it by 21.6%. This move was supported by the news related to potential resolution of the SEC dispute. Tether continues to gain on market fears on banking contingencies, and gained during the week another $2.7B in market cap, increasing coins in circulation by 3.7%. In a relative terms OMG Network had a good week as the coin surged by 25% in a single week.

Crypto futures market

The crypto futures market ended the week in a more positive manner than the spot market. BTC short term futures were up around 3% on a weekly basis, while long term futures surged by additional 13% from the week before. Another positive development is that maturities in December 2024 reached level above $30K for the first time after a long time. December 2024 ended the week at price $30.175, while December this year was last traded at price of $29.185.

ETH futures were traded higher but at a lower price increase from BTC futures. ETH short term maturities were only modestly up around 2%, and long term futures ended the week by 8% higher from the end of the week before. December 2024 was last traded at price of $1.904.

Above noted price levels are important also from the aspect of market perception of the future developments. Namely, after a longer period of inverted futures curve, finally there is some indication that the market is positive about future price developments for both coins.

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