without_worries

Alt-coin market is about to boom

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Over the months this 3-day chart has been very powerful for me. Think it is about time I shared it.

Over the last several weeks I’ve been selling my Bitcoin into various Alt-coin positions. It almost does not matter which, a rising tide lifts all boats to coin a phrase. My reasons for doing so is almost exclusively because of the this chart. Take time to study it.

This chart is showing you the ratio in dominance between Bitcoin and Alt-coins. So what’s going on?

1) Dominance between Bitcoin and alt-coins has been exchanging support and resistance in the above channel (between the orange lines).

2) Price action at the bottom of the channel is a superb time to get exposure to alt-coins.

3) Price action at the top of the channel was a superb time to sell those Alt-coins into BTC .

4) 204 days - peak to peak was 204 days in Alt-coin market tops. I don’t know why. The next peak in Alt-coins in Bitcoin terms is around Mid-June.

5) We can see Alt-coin dominance is about to test the 21-week moving average (green line), probably after Bitcoin makes another move up above $20k.

6) The ‘Oversold / incredible buy’ condition (orange column) on the above 3-day chart tells us we are at the bottom.

7) Money Flow Index ( MFI - bottom oscillator) resistance was recently broken.

Questions? Just ask below ;)
Trade active: I know it might not feel like it - but at this time as BTC dominance is very overbought, fear in the alts is high and selling pressure is relentless, now is an amazing time to get exposure to alts. Buy into the fear. When BTC.D falls the Alt-coins market must go up.. simple as that.

Here is the recent overbought areas on BTC.D dominance (Green columns) 1-day chart:

The 1st one on November 6th.


What happened to the alt-coin market capital from that date? A +50% move.

Trade active: Most people looking at this will probably think to themselves the alt-coins are dead as Bitcoin zooms to 100% dominance. This is simply not true.

I see a catapult being pulled back further and further. A number PM's from folks fretting about the slide in alt-coin dominance, don't worry. The rotation into the Alt-coin market from such a pullback will be something we've not seen before - be patient.

Comment: Try to avoid the 1-day charts as I don't think they are the most useful in the bigger picture. That said, the alt-coin dominance was pushed to the edges and outside of the Bollinger Band in the past couple of days as is shown on the 1-day chart below (circled in black). 95% of price action is inside the band.

The push caused the alt-coin market to go into a strong oversold condition (orange column). Look left as this happened before.

Hang in there!

Comment: Well done if you're still holding onto your alt-coin positions, you're about to be rewarded and then some. Give yourself a huge pat on the back. It is not easy watching the market bleed into Bitcoin.

The 3-day chart below has printed a new candle. A Dragonfly DOJI indicating a strong rotation is about to occur from Bitcoin to the alt-coin market.

Before I said the further alt-dominance falls the stronger it rises, as if a catapult being pulled back further and further. I'm looking for this run to last until April before we start thinking about rotating into Bitcoin.

Leave a message below if you have questions.

Comment: Just a quick update as someone below correctly observed a break in market structure with the printing of a lower low in dominance. Normally this is negative for sure. A trend is your friend.

On the positive side there is a regular bullish divergence between dominance and the oscillators, which follows the recently printed Dragonfly DOJI candle.

The Money flow index remains under resistance (bottom oscillator) @ a value of 16. This is ridiculous - normally this would represent an 'incredible buy' with spot. The resistance can remain active until around January 21st at latest. It has to break resistance by then!


Trade active: Already we've seen seen a few alt coins take off. Two to two and halve months of this of this is likely, in Bitcoin terms, to continue to see the alt-coin market dominance climb.

My charts are free to all and only an opinion... please do your own research.

Use the BTC address below to identify an asset you would like me to study. More donation = more study ;)

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Comments

Nice analysis, thanks for sharing.
+6 Reply
Bookmarked. Thanks for sharing.
+3 Reply
Alt market need incredible patience. I hope this patience will reward the holders with a nice up move. Alt holders deserve to be happy after 3 years of downtrend.
+2 Reply
Wonderful writing and much needed update.
+1 Reply
Very unusual new year HODL, lol :D
+1 Reply
*claps*
+1 Reply
Very interesting @without_worries! Any last news you can share? Bitcoin still going up, or do you see some alts moving already?
+1 Reply
@separaet, Tomorrow will see the next 3-day candle printed. Too early to say at the moment however it would seem the candle forming is indicating a huge swell of buying pressure in alts resulting in a Dragonfly DOJI candle. Look left - if this candle confirms a DOJI, history tells us we're definitely entering alt-season.

Reply
separaet without_worries
@without_worries, thanks for writing back, very interesting!! I was comparing previous BTC ATH with price action of alts and there seems to be a lag in price movements of roughly 2 weeks, but since bitcoin is still making higher highs not sure when we will see any movement and if that lag is still in place. Your chart helps a lot!
Reply
@separaet, A DOJI candle was printed on the 3-day with the close of yesterday at the same time Bitcoin hits the upper resistance channel (10-day chart below). I'll wait until it is confirmed for sure as St RSI crosses down 80, however for the moment I see a slow decline in Bitcoin price actions towards $14k until the Summer at the same time alt coins moon. That will be the moment to rotate back into Bitcoin. We'll have a month at least to execute, that has been my experience previously).

+1 Reply
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