Wednesday Moving Average Model for QQQ (No FOMC Days) for 11/30
This is a 5 minute moving weighted average model of the Wednesday Intra-Day stock price for QQQ. The average looks at all Wednesdays for the past 12 months, and excludes any Wednesdays that fall on FOMC announcement days (those are a separate pattern). To calculate the initial model, I did a straight average of 11 months, then performed a moving weighted average of the last three Wednesdays of the year with each week counting towards the model at a 0.15 weight.
The Wednesday model shows the Open, High, Low, and Close amounts (averaged), as well as the moving weighted historical high of the day, and key pivot points.
Because this Wednesday precedes special announcements of GDP numbers, it is very important to always follow price action. The model may only be useful to look for key swing points, and is not a reliable prediction of future behavior.
Additionally, I have added ADX and Chop data, using the same average methodology described above. For Wednesday, expect that the afternoon will have fairly low momentum. There does appear to be a repeated large move at 2PM that is appearing in my dataset, even when excluding FOMC announcements. I would watch for the 2PM interval to make some huge move (either up or down) as this is a large, repeatable observation.
The Wednesday model shows the Open, High, Low, and Close amounts (averaged), as well as the moving weighted historical high of the day, and key pivot points.
Because this Wednesday precedes special announcements of GDP numbers, it is very important to always follow price action. The model may only be useful to look for key swing points, and is not a reliable prediction of future behavior.
Additionally, I have added ADX and Chop data, using the same average methodology described above. For Wednesday, expect that the afternoon will have fairly low momentum. There does appear to be a repeated large move at 2PM that is appearing in my dataset, even when excluding FOMC announcements. I would watch for the 2PM interval to make some huge move (either up or down) as this is a large, repeatable observation.
Comment:
Note that Powell is speaking today at 1330. This could have a similar affect as FOMC days. Strategy is to look for those key pivot points. 1:30 to 2:00 again will likely be a big move as the model suggests.