JonRulz

Tron - Stages of a Market Played out Perfectly

BINANCE:TRXBTC   TRON / Bitcoin
I made my last Tron post on Feb 17, stating my thoughts on Tron and where it was at and heading. It did exactly as I wrote it would play out. and i'll give another analysis for Trons current situation. I look at the market cycle in 4 stages. It's very important to look at the broader scheme of the trend before making a trade. Which is were these 4 stages help decision making. Now, I will copy and paste part of my last post on Feb 17 to give a brief explanation of what these stages are. "These stages represent a cycle of the market. Stage 1 is the near the bottom, where neither buyers or sellers are winning. Stage 2, is when price starts to surge up and go on a BULL RUN. Stage 3 is when the bull run levels out and already hit it's peak. Stage 4 is the Bear market for the given time cycle."

As noted above, I called that stage 1 was starting to form for Tron on Feb 17. As we an currently see, i made the right call. I noted that I would not take a trade until it broke above 640 satoshi convincingly, but anyone who wants to buy in stage 1 can certainly do so. buying anywhere from 300 to 640 would have been a grand slam BTC wise at least. Unfortunately, we didn't see the price move back to ATH , but we saw a pretty big spike. Now price is back down BTC wise, and it's even lower than it was before. This causes concern for me as I'm not a long term Tron holder. This means I do not care to get the best holding prices, but only the least risky prices for a trade. For long term holders, buying anywhere in a speculated stage 1 is a good buy, of course there is risk that it's not truly a stage 1, but long term holders don't care about current price fluctuation, only the possible outcome of the future price. So, if you are a long term holder, go back and review why you bought Tron in a fundamental view, and if why you bought it still holds true, just keep holding. Otherwise, in a trading perspective I would not be buying at these prices. It kind of looks like a stage 1 might start forming, but it's too early to tell. I am concerned about the break of the 320 Satoshi as well. Right now, I am still considering this as a stage 4, and in a stage 4 (as noted in my last post) you stay away from it completely. I believe it's stage 4 still because it broke the 320 satoshi support, and the 20 & 50 SMA are still pointing downwards. To tell if it's at stage 1 is when prices look like it has level off and fluctuation is slowing down. I would personally use the 20 SMA as a determination tool. When the price starts going back and forth around the 20 SMA and the SMA starts leveling and pointing sideways or up, than I would consider the market to be in stage 1.

Until than, I would recommend staying away from Tron personally in a trading perspective. For holders, any good established Crpyto is looking like a steal for holding half a decade. Please note, that I do not consider Tron a good coin for my personal taste and what I like to look for in a good long term investment for Crypto.
But that doesn't mean it's a bad coin.

If you want more insight on the 4 stages I discussed above, I go in a little bit more deeper on my last post about Tron which you can find in the Related Ideas below.

Happy Trading!

Jon
Oct 02
Comment:

Looks like stage 1 might be starting to form. I expect sideways movement for now BTC wise at least. It's currently trading above the 50 and 20 SMA. 50 SMA looks like it might start straightening out. This is a good sign for a possible bottom to start forming.
Great info, thank you for sharing! If you think we're in stage 4 currently, do you think we need a retest around the low of 259 sats?
Reply
JonRulz Colt111
@Colt111, Personally, that's what I am thinking, and maybe a chance to even break lower. I could be wrong though, and stage 4 could be over. but I don't try to look for hope in something until I see reason too, and I have yet to see a reason for Tron. Maybe in the coming weeks that'll change. But currently this is where I stand. Of course, with this strategy I may miss some big moves. It's a trade off I take for wanting to be less at risk.
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JonRulz Colt111
@Colt111, I also wouldn't short. Shorting is too risky at these levels anything can happen. It's a wait and see type thing for me with Tron at least.
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I just got long Tron today at .0000292 and it does concern me as to how low some of these have gone like Cardano, I have to wonder if they're going to zero or close to it :)
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JonRulz toozoned50
@toozoned50, Some Alt coins will go to 0. History shows that most new alt coins will fall off. That makes holding things like Tron and ADA at a huge risk. That's why when we are going for longer term positions, we have to really believe in the company and what they stand for. Personally, I am not in Tron atm or ever will be in a long term perspective. That's not saying it's a bad coin, it just doesn't fit my criteria for holding. However, I am holding Cardano. I have recently bought a bunch at around 6-9 cents a pop, and I'm waiting to buy more if it goes lower. I'm feeling pretty confident and happy with my Cardano holdings.
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Jon you're very good
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