I've been waiting for some time now to see TRXC re-establish it's uptrend. I've posted prior ideas that have not come to fruition. If you are looking to take a long position on TRXC, I think the following indications will confirm an entry point for you in the next couple of days.
BUY SIGNALS:
1) 7-day JMA crossing up on 10-day DWMA: If you backtest this crossover indicator, you will see that it has reliably predicted several profitable entries and exits, particularly for short-term swing trades, dating back to May 2018. Notably, during TRXC's recent downtrend, the JMA has not crossed up on the DWMA . . . until last Friday. This is the first indication signal we've seen for re-entry.
2) MACD : Rapid convergence and imminent crossover:
The JMA/DWMA crossover is usually the first buy signal you'll see - this is the next signal I'm looking for to confirm entry.
3) DecisionPoint Price Momentum Oscillator: This is a free LazyBear indicator that I've only started using recently, and I REALLY like it a lot. It has helped me find profitable entries on a couple of other oversold securities (see FPAY and BLIN), and has helped me avoid chasing overbought securities. If you haven't used it before, I highly recommend you try it out. The histogram clearly shows that the negative price momentum has decelerated over the last week, and the divergence between the PMO line (black) and the PMO signal line (grey) has stalled. One of the things I like so much about this indicator is that it combines the benefits of a centered oscillator (via the histogram) and an open-ended absolute value oscillator (via the lines); the further away from the midline a crossover occurs, the stronger the signal. For TRXC, crossovers that have occurred below the -5.00 level have typically indicated notable reversals in price momentum:
(I've set the OB/OS levels on this indicator at 5.00 and -5.00; if you read the instructions for using this oscillator, you'll note that each security will have its own "overbought" and "oversold" levels, and you'll have to adjust these accordingly if you want to use them. The default levels are 2.50 and -2.50, which supposedly work for almost any index or ETF).
Watch for the PMO line to cross up over the PMO signal line in the coming week - at this level, I consider it a strong indication and a buy signal. In my limited experience thus far, the DPMO is a slower indicator, but a stronger one (if used properly) relative to the others discussed herein, especially when used to ascertain an intermediate- or long-term retracement/reversal.
4) RSX : The RSX has signaled oversold since October 11, 2018, but has recently started trending back upward. Watch for the RSX line to cross up over the oversold line as another buy signal. However, unless there's rapid acceleration, I consider this the weakest of the signals discussed here. I think the RSX is better used to confirm continuation of the uptrend by making sure the RSX line crosses the midline.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS:
1) Fib Retracement Level: I've adjusted my fib retracement coordinates to the beginning of the intermediate-term uptrend (low on May 1, 2018, high on Sept. 25, 2018); using these coordinates, the 0.786 fib level @ $2.80 offered excellent support and provided a bounce back above $3.00.
2) Trend Line Support: The dotted green trend line began around August 2017. It was tested in February 2018 and again in April/May 2018, and held support both times:
On this recent downtrend, the price approached but did not actually test this trend line again. Because the other indicators suggest we've turned the corner, I'm not sure we'll see it approach the trend line again; however, if TRXC does resume it's recent downtrend, watch closely to see if this trend line holds support - if it does, it signals an excellent buying opportunity in the mid- to upper-$2.XX range.
3) 200-Day Simple Moving Average : This is the most concerning indicator that causes me some hesitation. On Friday, we confirmed resistance at the the 200-day SMA (baby blue line):
Looking back to April 2014, the 200-day SMA has been a key level of support and resistance. For a conservative play, I would watch this closely and make sure TRXC breaks resistance at the 200-day SMA and reestablishes it as a level of support before taking a long position.
BUY SIGNALS:
1) 7-day JMA crossing up on 10-day DWMA: If you backtest this crossover indicator, you will see that it has reliably predicted several profitable entries and exits, particularly for short-term swing trades, dating back to May 2018. Notably, during TRXC's recent downtrend, the JMA has not crossed up on the DWMA . . . until last Friday. This is the first indication signal we've seen for re-entry.
2) MACD : Rapid convergence and imminent crossover:
3) DecisionPoint Price Momentum Oscillator: This is a free LazyBear indicator that I've only started using recently, and I REALLY like it a lot. It has helped me find profitable entries on a couple of other oversold securities (see FPAY and BLIN), and has helped me avoid chasing overbought securities. If you haven't used it before, I highly recommend you try it out. The histogram clearly shows that the negative price momentum has decelerated over the last week, and the divergence between the PMO line (black) and the PMO signal line (grey) has stalled. One of the things I like so much about this indicator is that it combines the benefits of a centered oscillator (via the histogram) and an open-ended absolute value oscillator (via the lines); the further away from the midline a crossover occurs, the stronger the signal. For TRXC, crossovers that have occurred below the -5.00 level have typically indicated notable reversals in price momentum:
Watch for the PMO line to cross up over the PMO signal line in the coming week - at this level, I consider it a strong indication and a buy signal. In my limited experience thus far, the DPMO is a slower indicator, but a stronger one (if used properly) relative to the others discussed herein, especially when used to ascertain an intermediate- or long-term retracement/reversal.
4) RSX : The RSX has signaled oversold since October 11, 2018, but has recently started trending back upward. Watch for the RSX line to cross up over the oversold line as another buy signal. However, unless there's rapid acceleration, I consider this the weakest of the signals discussed here. I think the RSX is better used to confirm continuation of the uptrend by making sure the RSX line crosses the midline.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS:
1) Fib Retracement Level: I've adjusted my fib retracement coordinates to the beginning of the intermediate-term uptrend (low on May 1, 2018, high on Sept. 25, 2018); using these coordinates, the 0.786 fib level @ $2.80 offered excellent support and provided a bounce back above $3.00.
2) Trend Line Support: The dotted green trend line began around August 2017. It was tested in February 2018 and again in April/May 2018, and held support both times:
3) 200-Day Simple Moving Average : This is the most concerning indicator that causes me some hesitation. On Friday, we confirmed resistance at the the 200-day SMA (baby blue line):