Here is a look at the Tesla daily chart.
There's a pretty clean count giving us a 5 wave move from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2021 resulting in ATH of almost 900 in Jan.
From there, we have a low of about 540 at he beginning of march. There are two possibilities here:
1) We are in an extended correction and an incomplete WXY more, or
2) we found the bottom at 540 and are now in the next impulsive wave up.
1) If this is the bear case then we have just completed the X leg, peaking at 780, which is just past the 0.618 retracement of the W leg. We could continue to head down from here, to complete the Y leg at the 0.5-0.618 retracement of the previous 2019-2021 move. This puts us at anywhere from 370-470. This scenario however is unlikely in my opinion because we have now broken above the 200 MA and the 21 EMA (green) has crossed the 50 EMA (yellow), with the price currently holding above the 10 EMA (blue). This gives us several support levels that the price would have to break through in order to move further down.
2) The more likely scenario in my opinion is that we bottomed out at 540 and began a new impulsive move, giving us a retrace to the 0.618 level for a wave 2 and are now in a new wave 3 which extends to the previous highs of just under 900. If we look at the IV rank and IV% they are both quite low, indicating that a big move is on the horizon. The RSI has also been recently rejected off the overbought levels and could attempt another cross that is sustained for a week or two, as was the case between Aug 17-Sep 1 and again from Nov 18-Dec 9 last year. Sustained overbought conditions paired with the potential of a large move in price could take us from current price to the wave 3 high (and previous ATH resistance) around 880-900. Further supporting this scenario is that analysts like Gary Black (@garyblack00) have a FA target price of $960 6-12 months out, which lines up with the Wave 5 target of 974-1057 that my TA shows by EoY 2021.
I have linked my previous looks at tesla which have played out as predicted so far, however i no longer think we are in the bear case as the overall market is also rather bullish. Minor corrections aside, i don't see a large drop over all for the next several months. Of course DYODD.
There's a pretty clean count giving us a 5 wave move from the end of 2019 to the beginning of 2021 resulting in ATH of almost 900 in Jan.
From there, we have a low of about 540 at he beginning of march. There are two possibilities here:
1) We are in an extended correction and an incomplete WXY more, or
2) we found the bottom at 540 and are now in the next impulsive wave up.
1) If this is the bear case then we have just completed the X leg, peaking at 780, which is just past the 0.618 retracement of the W leg. We could continue to head down from here, to complete the Y leg at the 0.5-0.618 retracement of the previous 2019-2021 move. This puts us at anywhere from 370-470. This scenario however is unlikely in my opinion because we have now broken above the 200 MA and the 21 EMA (green) has crossed the 50 EMA (yellow), with the price currently holding above the 10 EMA (blue). This gives us several support levels that the price would have to break through in order to move further down.
2) The more likely scenario in my opinion is that we bottomed out at 540 and began a new impulsive move, giving us a retrace to the 0.618 level for a wave 2 and are now in a new wave 3 which extends to the previous highs of just under 900. If we look at the IV rank and IV% they are both quite low, indicating that a big move is on the horizon. The RSI has also been recently rejected off the overbought levels and could attempt another cross that is sustained for a week or two, as was the case between Aug 17-Sep 1 and again from Nov 18-Dec 9 last year. Sustained overbought conditions paired with the potential of a large move in price could take us from current price to the wave 3 high (and previous ATH resistance) around 880-900. Further supporting this scenario is that analysts like Gary Black (@garyblack00) have a FA target price of $960 6-12 months out, which lines up with the Wave 5 target of 974-1057 that my TA shows by EoY 2021.
I have linked my previous looks at tesla which have played out as predicted so far, however i no longer think we are in the bear case as the overall market is also rather bullish. Minor corrections aside, i don't see a large drop over all for the next several months. Of course DYODD.
