TSLA Weekly Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst's Cyclic Analysis
Overview: we have been waiting for this 40W trough for weeks. I am not going through my previous updates and statements, just recapping the update of previous weekend:
Update: we did not get the last minor push as we expected and formed a beautiful bullish island reversal.
This is the start of a bullish phase to ~380 by the end of October/early November.
I think this gap is not going to be filled ever!
Also, for the candlestick pattern geeks, the price action of past 4 days is a special bullish pattern (one white soldier + one black crow + one white soldier).
Analysis of the Structure:
I see that we are in wave c of (I) of c of 3.
Since we are in early stages of development of wave c of 3, we do not have much data to use fib extensions to generate targets. No worries, our cyclic analysis will help us in this case.
Analysis of Cycles:
We got the 40W cycle trough on August 18th. This means we are now inside the second 40W cycle in the current 18M cycle.
On Thursday (August 24th), we completed the first 10D cycle. For this past 10D cycle, the target that the cross of the 10D FLD had generated was 238.3 and what we got was 244.05 on August 24th.
The fact that the FLD target was overshot and the peak was formed so late in the cycle highlights the strong bullish underlying trend, as we expect following the major trough we had last week (short-term trend = 20D and 40D cycles -> both pushing upward).
Now, to find a target for the coming peak (wave (I) peak), we rely on the 20D cycle FLD cross. The cross that we got has generated a target of 258. Again, the underlying trend is bullish, so an overshoot of that target is expected.
The upcoming 20D trough should form on September 1st or September 5th (wave (II) bottom).
Summary:
TSLA is in wave (I) of c of 3. I expect wave (I) peaking around 260 later in the coming week.
- The bearish pressure of a 40W cycle trough is being felt completely.
- We will have the final push lower to bottom for wave b of 3.
- The volume increase of past few days = an aid in identifying reversals happening soon.
- Price targets for the bottom: 200.68-208.55.
- The 40W cycle trough is going to happen on Wednesday (23rd) or Thursday (24th).
Update: we did not get the last minor push as we expected and formed a beautiful bullish island reversal.
This is the start of a bullish phase to ~380 by the end of October/early November.
I think this gap is not going to be filled ever!
Also, for the candlestick pattern geeks, the price action of past 4 days is a special bullish pattern (one white soldier + one black crow + one white soldier).
Analysis of the Structure:
I see that we are in wave c of (I) of c of 3.
Since we are in early stages of development of wave c of 3, we do not have much data to use fib extensions to generate targets. No worries, our cyclic analysis will help us in this case.
Analysis of Cycles:
We got the 40W cycle trough on August 18th. This means we are now inside the second 40W cycle in the current 18M cycle.
On Thursday (August 24th), we completed the first 10D cycle. For this past 10D cycle, the target that the cross of the 10D FLD had generated was 238.3 and what we got was 244.05 on August 24th.
The fact that the FLD target was overshot and the peak was formed so late in the cycle highlights the strong bullish underlying trend, as we expect following the major trough we had last week (short-term trend = 20D and 40D cycles -> both pushing upward).
Now, to find a target for the coming peak (wave (I) peak), we rely on the 20D cycle FLD cross. The cross that we got has generated a target of 258. Again, the underlying trend is bullish, so an overshoot of that target is expected.
The upcoming 20D trough should form on September 1st or September 5th (wave (II) bottom).
Summary:
TSLA is in wave (I) of c of 3. I expect wave (I) peaking around 260 later in the coming week.
