timwest
Long

REPUBLISHING Sep 20 Forecast for TSLA

BATS:TSLA   TESLA INC
511 6 6
So far this is going along the general path outlined back in September.

Tesla             has responded well given the three fires that have caught media attention and the rebound from the NHTSA reaffirming their safe opinion of Tesla's Model S. Furthermore, the lack of battery supply to drive growth is hampering growth estimates and the exciting new models forthcoming from Tesla             ignite hopes that growth has a long time to run.

Technically, TSLA             is building and accumulating for another move up in 2014.

Tim

1/8/2014 10:22AM EST
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I exited my long position today at 198 that I entered most recently on the drop to 168 on Jan 27th. Feb 10, 2014
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ThisTejas timwest
Do you have any thoughts/opinions on TSLA earnings?
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timwest PRO ThisTejas
I have a lot of thoughts, but they are mostly long term for Tesla. If the stock gets hammered on earnings, I would think that would be a buying opportunity because this is a long term story. Tesla is building battery capacity to substantially increase earnings down the road (bad pun). They seem to be executing as close to flawlessly as could ever be imagined, so from the perspective of opportunities, I want to see them stumble a bit on the execution front to give us a chance to buy stock at lower than average value. If the stock jumps on their volume beat, then it would be good to exit as I think the stock has no room for error at all at a $30 billion market cap (currently just under $25 billion mkt cap). In the short run, the earnings are going to be difficult to interpret anyway due to GAAP versus Non-GAAP reporting. CEO Musk has been more conservative in making far-reaching forecasts and the supercharger network has to be eating into margins here at some point. A major bonus is that the long term is impossible to see, so all we can do is decide if this company is doing the right things (Yes, they are) and moving towards their goals (Yes, they are) and making a profit (Well, technically they need to invest heavy to keep this growing and at least they aren't bleeding cash heavily), and buy the stock slowly over time and buy a bit more when it is down.
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ThisTejas timwest
It all sounds good, and even though I think they have little reason to give a bad or lacking earnings report in any way, shape, or form, I think that IF it does happen, it could kick off a much bigger sell off on TSLA than most people are anticipating, from a TA point of view only.
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The pattern is still developing. The article in Barron's this weekend gave it another push. If you haven't seen the article, it is someone saying that Tesla's Model S is amazing. On top of that, I like how everyone is now seeing a "Cup & Handle" pattern in TSLA.
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TSLA is back in the forecasted "zone" from back in September
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