Welp, in my last post titled, Thought Experiment, I stated we would get a "hard fall which would coincide with the strength one would expect to see from a C wave of any degree". We definitely got that hard fall alright. Tesla fell 17.87% from yesterdays close to today's low of $180.06. This fall isn't over yet either. As the chart suggests we could fall down to around the 1.236 fib @ $154.94. This is the fib extension of our (A)-(B) waves in which I am using to track this move down. We should hit the 1.0 @ $171.67 at a minimum if this is to be considered a "normal" ABC. Below $151.72 and the primary count is invalidated.
One thing I want to point out is the MACD on the hourly chart, which it is the same with the 4HR & daily chart. Even with how hard price has fallen it still has yet to make a new low. On the 1HR chart I have a red line drawn showing the low MACD made on 19 Oct 23'. If we breach this line, then it is a clue price has intentions on moving lower. However, MACD has already started to retrace higher on the hourly chart and has quite a ways to go before breaching the 4HR and daily chart lows. We shall see over the next week or two what it does, but for now it is holding up.
Looking at price action/structure from the fall yesterday, it appears we need a couple 4's & 5's to complete this move down. This fits perfectly with hitting our 1.0 @ $171.67. That doesn't mean we hit the 1.0 fib to the cent and then turn around to raise higher. We will most likely pierce it by at least little before heading back up. As stated above, it's absolutely possible we hit the 1.236 or possibly even lower. Make sure if you enter in a trade around this area you use stops to protect yourselves. Don't forget about the orange count on my chart suggesting wave (I) has already completed. I don't think this is the case as of now, but something we need to keep in our mind. Daily MACD suggests we are currently in wave V of (I).
I think over the next week or two we make a series of slightly lower lows followed by small retraces until these 4's & 5's finish up. Once that happens, if this larger count is right, we will start to move up with strength. Don't get greedy though and put yourself in a pinch. We have plenty of meat on the bones when it finally moves higher.
One thing I want to point out is the MACD on the hourly chart, which it is the same with the 4HR & daily chart. Even with how hard price has fallen it still has yet to make a new low. On the 1HR chart I have a red line drawn showing the low MACD made on 19 Oct 23'. If we breach this line, then it is a clue price has intentions on moving lower. However, MACD has already started to retrace higher on the hourly chart and has quite a ways to go before breaching the 4HR and daily chart lows. We shall see over the next week or two what it does, but for now it is holding up.
Looking at price action/structure from the fall yesterday, it appears we need a couple 4's & 5's to complete this move down. This fits perfectly with hitting our 1.0 @ $171.67. That doesn't mean we hit the 1.0 fib to the cent and then turn around to raise higher. We will most likely pierce it by at least little before heading back up. As stated above, it's absolutely possible we hit the 1.236 or possibly even lower. Make sure if you enter in a trade around this area you use stops to protect yourselves. Don't forget about the orange count on my chart suggesting wave (I) has already completed. I don't think this is the case as of now, but something we need to keep in our mind. Daily MACD suggests we are currently in wave V of (I).
I think over the next week or two we make a series of slightly lower lows followed by small retraces until these 4's & 5's finish up. Once that happens, if this larger count is right, we will start to move up with strength. Don't get greedy though and put yourself in a pinch. We have plenty of meat on the bones when it finally moves higher.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
