timwest
Long

Tesla Motors -TSLA -Weekly -Modeling Pre-Model S

NASDAQ:TSLA   TESLA INC
1211 23 26
I was putting the news releases on the chart for an instructional demonstration when I noticed how the Pre-Model S time frame was mimicking the Pre-Model X time window now. The three highs and consolidations all seem to match up a little and with a little imagination, you could see how investors will wait until the "real deal" is actually out and selling before there is any real buying.

I'll see about adding more fundamental data to this chart, but didn't want to overcrowd it with news items.

In the future, I hope we can all have access to a chart like this so you can see where the news hit the market and how the market responded. It's a great history lesson. But so much history is missing on this chart.

Tim 204.78 last TSLA             April 7, 2015 10:18AM EST
Comment: CLICK ON THE "UPDATE" BUTTON and see what you see.
Comment: https://www.tradingview.com/u/timwest/#search-charts=TSLA

Lagging the projection due to the less popular Model-X and Model-3 about a year away.

Time will tell, but there is quite a spread between how Tesla did with Model-S and with Model-X.
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This idea of adding news to charts is intriguing Tim - doing some digging here, but are you aware of any PineScript ability to pull in data from external sources? Also like the comparison you're making here on $TSLA
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timwest PRO dpetersson
I think "news" on charts is a great way to make "charts come alive", which is my goal here at TradingView. I want to make charts UNDERSTANDABLE and EASY TO READ and not mystifying with all kinds of incomprehensible gobbledygook and preconceived patterns. People Buy and People Sell and they have reasons why. We don't always know why, but we can try to understand why they might. Having news on the chart would certainly go a long way towards helping people SEE when the news might already be BAKED INTO a stock and maybe help people out. So..... I'm glad you agree too. Cheers. Tim
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I have tried google trends and I have tried to correlate the news events to stock movements. I think if news events and/or number of searches may be incorporated as an indicator would be great. I would assume that it would most likely behave like a volume indicator.
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Hello mazdaki - I think the power of news and stock prices and movement is for all of us collectively to decide if a day was a bullish or bearish for the stock. We could all input our own info in "wikipedia" style and then we would have our "TradingView-News" chart that would be very helpful for all of to know when a stock is in strong hands and accumulated or when it is in distribution and going from strong to weak hands. We could all do much better, with less time and effort and with better reward/risk ratios for our trading/investing.
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If history is any guide, I'd guess the pattern goes a little "faster" the second time around. In this example, I put them at the same "speed".
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I love the historical comments. I believe every chart is a story, but as it stands we need to dig through the news archives to figure out what the story was. You can bet, though that when there is a significant move in a chart, there was news behind it. It would be interesting to see a news chart of Crude or Gold stocks because they would actually involve world events that affect everyone. I also was going to add that I think the move in Tesla will be a lot faster than the move from 2011-12 because now investors know that Tesla delivers.
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Tim, Nice chart but it will be hard to trade based on the prediction on this chart without a 5 year vision.
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Thanks mazdaki, Here's my guess: Model X sales could provide a very clear story in about 6-9 months. I think that car will be wildly successful and their will be a 1 year wait to buy one.
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LOL, the theory of plotting Elon's tweets on a chart. Elon said this *ZOOM* Elon said this *ZOOM*. Well basically anytime Elon tweets, the stock zooms up. lol. but, you must also consider the interference of competitors with aluminum batteries and cheaper electric cars that are not in the same category but will affect tsla, plus the constantly flucuating price of oil. when you look of google finance, they use markers to indicate news, and then link to the news article, but many times those articles are just teasers for whore stock sites trying to get you to buy their forecasting newsletter. plus every ahole has their own opinion on a stock's future, with the ability to publish it to the web as "news". so I worry that the inclusion of news bubbles on a chart would be a mess, and by the time news is public, the easy money has already been made. so you need a pre-news indicator, lol.
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What I am suggesting is that each day we collectively put on the chart a summary of the news in a simple, clear, visually intuitive way. Bright green for bullish news, for example. Bright red bar for bearish news. Then hover the mouse over that bar and a window opens up showing you the news of the day, for example. Like a Wikipedia for each day. If it is really meaningful, we could turn the day into a triangle to help it stand out even more on the chart. In this way, we leverage the wisdom of our multitudes of traders, investors, commentators, etc. We can use small amounts of real labor from everyone to make a powerful system instead of counting on the power of computers to do the work for us, again, like Wikipedia.
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Tonight is the full announcement of the Tesla Battery Pack, many think will be for the home. April 30, 2015. Tesla will move tomorrow if the news is earth-shaking enough. Time will tell. For now, we watch.
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Will be interesting to watch what happens with crude oil in this light...good TSLA news, TSLA goes up. Say crude does too. What made price move?
Definitely interesting.
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what are your thoughts heading into earnings?
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timwest PRO BitcoinShane
I have no position in TSLA and I'm ready to buy on a move down. I'll be listening closely to the earnings call on Wednesday and see what I can hear. Prior to that news, I'd think it was wise to only own what you would be willing to hold if it went down a lot. Long term, I'm very bullish. Short term, take a look at the price of both calls and puts "at the money" and that will show you what option traders think the stock will move on earnings. My sense is that stocks move 80% of the time by the amount of the calls and puts prices added together. I can't tell you which way it will move. The stock also moves in after-hours trading, so unless you have an account that can trade after-hours, it won't matter much. Are you going to trade in after-hours time frames?
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No. I don't have a way to. The broker I use closes at 4 pm
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Tim, will you incorporate the Tesla Energy business into this chart? I am curious about your thoughts on the new line of business, especially now, after the earnings report and lots of information to digest. (Also, I read all your notes and charts on Tesla, am learning very much from your posts!)
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TSLA's conference call questions were very insightful. There are large orders for the low-margin battery business, so I'm not sure how to price the Energy Business just yet. I'm very impressed by Tesla and the results they are generating and the look of the Model 3 looks like a major winner too. Tesla has a long story ahead of it.
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MonicaL timwest
I think the market is finally coming around to accepting that Tesla is more than a car company. The Powerwall is aspirational, everybody wants one first because of what it represents and also because of the increasing practical benefits. Wait for Gigafactory 2 preparations... Paradigm shift. Thanks for answering my question, I always look forward to your analysis!
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Thanks MonicaL - I appreciate your positivity.
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So, what is the bias there now? Are you in buying mode?
Was the Model X released yet?
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What's up man...Great analysis as always.
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I see people are wondering on whats your idea on this. It currently still is in a parallel down trending channel, but on breakout one should be in. it may pop out with a bang as well
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snapshot

not as deep as ur chart , but i believe we are headed up here
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