First off, I would like to say that I believe in Tesla and Elon Musk. But this parabolic rally is entirely unsustainable and is fueled by hype similar to cryptocurrency and 2000 Dot Com Bubble.
I called the dip to $750 and subsequent bounce to $950. I have been short biased since $958 and will add above $1,000 if we get there. We might have another push up, but in my view anything up here is an obvious short. I will link proof of my older call below.
Most TSLA bulls got rekt by shorting too early, while I was waiting for a blowoff and bounce (lower high) for this trade to fully develop.
For the Tesla bulltards, this is not a day trade. This is a multi-month or year macro swing trade and I will be hedging on strong bounces. It will not be a straight drop down by any means. But what goes up, must come down. I am primarily technical trader, but with the Cornonavirus debacle and the global slowdown starting, these events add confluence to my bearish view on Tesla.
Long term, I think Tesla can succeed so long as they can remain capital efficient. But for an asset to be properly price, it needs to not be in the midst of a massive hype cycle.
In short, Tesla to $601, $511, and ideally the ~$400 range. If this is a true parabolic invalidation, then an 80% decline puts us at a target of roughly $170-$200. That is not my primary count, but I consider it as a viable possibility if a recession begins within the next 18 months.
Until then, this is a game of patience and shorting every bounce or move higher above $1,000 while hedging long on dips.
If this trade is accurate, it will likely be one of the biggest trades of the decade among major companies. For now, we wait. The Big Short.
I called the dip to $750 and subsequent bounce to $950. I have been short biased since $958 and will add above $1,000 if we get there. We might have another push up, but in my view anything up here is an obvious short. I will link proof of my older call below.
Most TSLA bulls got rekt by shorting too early, while I was waiting for a blowoff and bounce (lower high) for this trade to fully develop.
For the Tesla bulltards, this is not a day trade. This is a multi-month or year macro swing trade and I will be hedging on strong bounces. It will not be a straight drop down by any means. But what goes up, must come down. I am primarily technical trader, but with the Cornonavirus debacle and the global slowdown starting, these events add confluence to my bearish view on Tesla.
Long term, I think Tesla can succeed so long as they can remain capital efficient. But for an asset to be properly price, it needs to not be in the midst of a massive hype cycle.
In short, Tesla to $601, $511, and ideally the ~$400 range. If this is a true parabolic invalidation, then an 80% decline puts us at a target of roughly $170-$200. That is not my primary count, but I consider it as a viable possibility if a recession begins within the next 18 months.
Until then, this is a game of patience and shorting every bounce or move higher above $1,000 while hedging long on dips.
If this trade is accurate, it will likely be one of the biggest trades of the decade among major companies. For now, we wait. The Big Short.
