As the title suggests, this post will be playing devil's advocate and make arguments from both a bull POV as well as a bear POV.
My primary count is labeled in white with yellow/blue fibs. The turquoise lines represent my 1st ALT retracement fibs, and assumes we are starting the next c wave. The orange count assumes Super Cycle wave (I) has already ended. The main count suggests we are in a wave (ii), and are about to raise for wave b to around the $250 area before falling into the target box labeled c in the low $200's. Keep in mind these are just standard places for price to end according to EWT guidelines and are by no means a guarantee. Unfortunately, we can't have a confirmation of the 1st ALT until price breaches $193.80 to the downside. My 2nd ALT (orange) confirmation comes with a breach of $101.22.
Bull Theory Supporters
Overall MACD supports this theory, and as it suggests, we are in wave V of super cycle wave (I). The larger count which began July 2010 has been hitting standard fibs this entire time. If these fibs are to help guide us, then we still have a long way to go (years) before SS I is over. The micro counts & structure can be deceiving, and as many of you long term followers can attest, LARGER COUNT IS KING. The overall structure continues to appear impulsive to the upside and is my strongest single piece of data to support my thesis. Also, from a non-ewt perspective, Tesla has some very high manufacturing output despite these labor fights it has been involved in. So long as this continues it will be a huge strength for Tesla compared to most other companies. They are at this time, best positioned to capitalize on the growing global push for EV's. Sure, some chinese company out produced Tesla for one quarter, but that is hardly anything to write home about. If they keep it up, they could really eat into Tesla's market dominance, but until I see consistency it will remain an afterthought for me.
Bear Theory Supporters
The weekly wave IV MACD reading is VERY deep. This is most likely due to the fact wave II retrace was shallow and wave IV was deep but could be a sign price is about to move much lower. The 1HR MACD seems to support the turquoise count due to the low it made on October 19. Price action since 10/31/23 has been very choppy and overlapping at times. This does not fare well with an impulsive count, but these micro machinations can be very deceiving as mentioned above. We also came up short on micro fibs and stopped at the 1.618. This resulted in us ending in a "standard" spot for the orange count AND the turquoise count. Y'all know how Tesla likes to confuse us. The single biggest piece of data that makes me feel a bear count is very possible....Elon Musk. He is just so erratic and I'm now seeing articles suggesting he was slurring his words at an all hands meeting prompting fears from executives he was on drugs. Don't get me wrong, this very well could be a hit piece. Elon has a lot of very powerful enemies. However, if there is even a shred of evidence to this claim...TESLA WILL TAKE A HUGE HIT IMHO. This in itself makes me nervous to invest in Tesla until we have more confirmation price is going to turn around and continue in a bullish pattern.
Below is a weekly chart showing price action from July 2010 until today. The white wave IV is my primary as you know. The orange (I) suggests Super Cycle 1 has already completed, orange a-b tracks a super cycle 2, and suggests orange c has already started. If the orange count(2nd ALT) comes to fruition, then price would easily end sub $100.
I added the daily chart for a closer view of the Orange count/price action/structure. Check out the MACD and the high it made. Keep in mind wave 3's are the strongest move in an impulsive count and MACD should reflect this. Also, MACD hit the correct targets for the ABC move down for wave IV. I expect it to begin raising soon and to move higher than 22.41 but stay below 38.07 if it is to follow standard movements. There are no rules for MACD to follow, but after learning it's "normal" movements one can effectively use it to help judge where waves end and begin.
I have a feeling the next week or two will determine price movements for the entire rest of the year regarding Tesla. May price action be good to us!!
Reminder: My posting schedule will dramatically change starting March 1st.
My primary count is labeled in white with yellow/blue fibs. The turquoise lines represent my 1st ALT retracement fibs, and assumes we are starting the next c wave. The orange count assumes Super Cycle wave (I) has already ended. The main count suggests we are in a wave (ii), and are about to raise for wave b to around the $250 area before falling into the target box labeled c in the low $200's. Keep in mind these are just standard places for price to end according to EWT guidelines and are by no means a guarantee. Unfortunately, we can't have a confirmation of the 1st ALT until price breaches $193.80 to the downside. My 2nd ALT (orange) confirmation comes with a breach of $101.22.
Bull Theory Supporters
Overall MACD supports this theory, and as it suggests, we are in wave V of super cycle wave (I). The larger count which began July 2010 has been hitting standard fibs this entire time. If these fibs are to help guide us, then we still have a long way to go (years) before SS I is over. The micro counts & structure can be deceiving, and as many of you long term followers can attest, LARGER COUNT IS KING. The overall structure continues to appear impulsive to the upside and is my strongest single piece of data to support my thesis. Also, from a non-ewt perspective, Tesla has some very high manufacturing output despite these labor fights it has been involved in. So long as this continues it will be a huge strength for Tesla compared to most other companies. They are at this time, best positioned to capitalize on the growing global push for EV's. Sure, some chinese company out produced Tesla for one quarter, but that is hardly anything to write home about. If they keep it up, they could really eat into Tesla's market dominance, but until I see consistency it will remain an afterthought for me.
Bear Theory Supporters
The weekly wave IV MACD reading is VERY deep. This is most likely due to the fact wave II retrace was shallow and wave IV was deep but could be a sign price is about to move much lower. The 1HR MACD seems to support the turquoise count due to the low it made on October 19. Price action since 10/31/23 has been very choppy and overlapping at times. This does not fare well with an impulsive count, but these micro machinations can be very deceiving as mentioned above. We also came up short on micro fibs and stopped at the 1.618. This resulted in us ending in a "standard" spot for the orange count AND the turquoise count. Y'all know how Tesla likes to confuse us. The single biggest piece of data that makes me feel a bear count is very possible....Elon Musk. He is just so erratic and I'm now seeing articles suggesting he was slurring his words at an all hands meeting prompting fears from executives he was on drugs. Don't get me wrong, this very well could be a hit piece. Elon has a lot of very powerful enemies. However, if there is even a shred of evidence to this claim...TESLA WILL TAKE A HUGE HIT IMHO. This in itself makes me nervous to invest in Tesla until we have more confirmation price is going to turn around and continue in a bullish pattern.
Below is a weekly chart showing price action from July 2010 until today. The white wave IV is my primary as you know. The orange (I) suggests Super Cycle 1 has already completed, orange a-b tracks a super cycle 2, and suggests orange c has already started. If the orange count(2nd ALT) comes to fruition, then price would easily end sub $100.
I added the daily chart for a closer view of the Orange count/price action/structure. Check out the MACD and the high it made. Keep in mind wave 3's are the strongest move in an impulsive count and MACD should reflect this. Also, MACD hit the correct targets for the ABC move down for wave IV. I expect it to begin raising soon and to move higher than 22.41 but stay below 38.07 if it is to follow standard movements. There are no rules for MACD to follow, but after learning it's "normal" movements one can effectively use it to help judge where waves end and begin.
I have a feeling the next week or two will determine price movements for the entire rest of the year regarding Tesla. May price action be good to us!!
Reminder: My posting schedule will dramatically change starting March 1st.
Comment:
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Comment:
Lame morning so far but price is holding steady around the 0.382. Hopefully we will start to bounce soon as I see many other charts needing a move higher.
Comment:
Nothing much happened today and at risk of repeating myself this post is still relevant. I will make a new one tomorrow and will update throughout the day as able.
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
