NOTE: these are my personal notes. At beginning you' ll see my overall thoughts - following is the logica for those who want.
December 5, 2018
Summary
Should I switch to short side - or this is just some shorter TF longs liquidations?
1. Now on decent support, trendline and small Hourly trendline. Can IT reverse here, squeeze shorts and find some new buyers and momentum to break ATH?
2. Or will it sell off again as it approaches 100?
3. Or a correction up before keep on going down?
Watch 87/90 carefully.
Thoughts:
Earnings and company outlook are good, value not really - still, it didn’t break down much during this bear condition until yesterday.; anyway it’ s on a strong weekly uptrend and I wouldn’t think of shorting this during a bull market.
But.
SHORT
As of today though, on a weak market, a short of 97\95 with stops over 101 is not a terrible idea - keeping well in mind that we are near ATH and there is always the risk of a mix of euphoria, increasing volume and a strong move up.
What about a continuation play?
A 15M oversold and overall pattern and absorption tells me an upward movement following these 2 day sell off may be coming. Just watch what happens and re-assess.
LONG
I would like to see it retesting 87, 82 (0.618 Fib) at least, 75or even 64
We can see the Weekly picking up Volume once it hit ATH.
Rumors of better future earnings made the stock price go up. Earnings were good (don’t trust TV!)
-The 19 Nov it broke down 89 and went through 82 , closing at 77. I still feel 82 should be tested from above.
Post Market, the price went up to 78, then went down and once it went under 77 again it sold off (Probably retail and short term traders panicking).
The sell off goes on the next day pre market till 70s, where it gets quickly rejected from 71.50.
-At Market open, 20 NOV the price shoots up high (ouch, a lot of people must have lost tons)
The market keeps on going up pre market (creating a week high) and the 21 NOV it balances right at the open visiting previous day value area 75
22NOV is holiday and market tests 75 again.
23 NOV the market shoots up at the open, squeezing again a fuckload of people, POC migrates higher close to above 82 breaker
25 NOV HOLIDAY Pre Market, price breaks 82 breaker and daily resistance.
26 NOV is another glorious day for bulls, as price goes up at the open trending up and quickly touching 89, bore consolidating over 87 breaker.
PM sells off a bit
27 is balancing day Inside day, where we test previous day VA and we get rejected up.
Once again we traded up post pre.
28 ANOTHER DAY WHERE MANY GOT HURT. Price quickly tests 90 and get rejected, igniting firecrackers till sells off to 85.
85/87 (previous day VA) gets quickly rejected and we break up to 89, finishing the day next 93
PM Tests 90 again
29NOV we trend up creating a P that consolidates over previous day high. The closes sets a sell off.
PM consolidates inside VA
30nov we again open high and we trend
Though retouching the Open (that is not broken) After retesting the open we go high closing the day above VA
HIGHER poC gets retested.
3DEC at market close we gap up again, touching99
We then quickly sell off to 90, showing decent absorption beneath 93.50, closing at 95.
Pm 95 we retest 84 again with a poor low
4DEC Another tricky day.
The market, happy of 93.50 holding again, trend upward breaking 95 and consolidating for a while above it. Quickly thereafter we sold off to 90–98.20 where there may be some absorption at the close.
Volume
Steady value increase
Post Earning Spike and volume increase. Price didnt follow greatly but overall market was bearish
December 5, 2018
Summary
Should I switch to short side - or this is just some shorter TF longs liquidations?
1. Now on decent support, trendline and small Hourly trendline. Can IT reverse here, squeeze shorts and find some new buyers and momentum to break ATH?
2. Or will it sell off again as it approaches 100?
3. Or a correction up before keep on going down?
Watch 87/90 carefully.
Thoughts:
Earnings and company outlook are good, value not really - still, it didn’t break down much during this bear condition until yesterday.; anyway it’ s on a strong weekly uptrend and I wouldn’t think of shorting this during a bull market.
But.
SHORT
As of today though, on a weak market, a short of 97\95 with stops over 101 is not a terrible idea - keeping well in mind that we are near ATH and there is always the risk of a mix of euphoria, increasing volume and a strong move up.
What about a continuation play?
A 15M oversold and overall pattern and absorption tells me an upward movement following these 2 day sell off may be coming. Just watch what happens and re-assess.
LONG
I would like to see it retesting 87, 82 (0.618 Fib) at least, 75or even 64
We can see the Weekly picking up Volume once it hit ATH.
Rumors of better future earnings made the stock price go up. Earnings were good (don’t trust TV!)
-The 19 Nov it broke down 89 and went through 82 , closing at 77. I still feel 82 should be tested from above.
Post Market, the price went up to 78, then went down and once it went under 77 again it sold off (Probably retail and short term traders panicking).
The sell off goes on the next day pre market till 70s, where it gets quickly rejected from 71.50.
-At Market open, 20 NOV the price shoots up high (ouch, a lot of people must have lost tons)
The market keeps on going up pre market (creating a week high) and the 21 NOV it balances right at the open visiting previous day value area 75
22NOV is holiday and market tests 75 again.
23 NOV the market shoots up at the open, squeezing again a fuckload of people, POC migrates higher close to above 82 breaker
25 NOV HOLIDAY Pre Market, price breaks 82 breaker and daily resistance.
26 NOV is another glorious day for bulls, as price goes up at the open trending up and quickly touching 89, bore consolidating over 87 breaker.
PM sells off a bit
27 is balancing day Inside day, where we test previous day VA and we get rejected up.
Once again we traded up post pre.
28 ANOTHER DAY WHERE MANY GOT HURT. Price quickly tests 90 and get rejected, igniting firecrackers till sells off to 85.
85/87 (previous day VA) gets quickly rejected and we break up to 89, finishing the day next 93
PM Tests 90 again
29NOV we trend up creating a P that consolidates over previous day high. The closes sets a sell off.
PM consolidates inside VA
30nov we again open high and we trend
Though retouching the Open (that is not broken) After retesting the open we go high closing the day above VA
HIGHER poC gets retested.
3DEC at market close we gap up again, touching99
We then quickly sell off to 90, showing decent absorption beneath 93.50, closing at 95.
Pm 95 we retest 84 again with a poor low
4DEC Another tricky day.
The market, happy of 93.50 holding again, trend upward breaking 95 and consolidating for a while above it. Quickly thereafter we sold off to 90–98.20 where there may be some absorption at the close.
Volume
Steady value increase
Post Earning Spike and volume increase. Price didnt follow greatly but overall market was bearish