4xForecaster

All Targets Hit ... Expect Relief Rally | $NYA #NYSE #Yellen

NYSE:TWTR   TWITTER INC
493 0 8
Friends,

Following is a trade recapitulation and added analysis of Twitter:


TRADE RECAP:

On February 5th, my predictive analysis and forecasting system raised the question:

"Which Way To The Bear Party?"
-
Analysis/Forecast: Which Way To The Bear Party? | #TWTR #Twitter


Within a few candles, price move towards the target, as I answered:

" ... This Way, Replied The Bears."
-
Chart Update: "... That Way, Replied The Bears" | $Twitter $NYSE


On the following week, the system further defined the a new bearish target, namely: TG-2 = 40.26 - 13 FEB 2014:

"Update: Bearish ; New probable Target Low"
-
Update: Bearish; New Probable Target-Low | #TWTR #Twitter $NYSE



PATTERN ANALYSIS:

At this point, I am expecting a relief rally to occur. Looking at price action, a pattern trader might have seen that the lowest of our target fell in line with the completion of a Shark . While a Shark pattern is what I call a "pseudo-pattern" for being defined by an unusual "Zero-X-A-B-C", it is often the gatekeeper to a "normal" pattern named by Scott Carney as a 5-0 Pattern, "normal" as it is defined by the standard X-A-B-C-D points.

Hence, if a relief rally should occur - as it seems to be on its way since hitting our secondary target dead-on - this would place a 5-0 pattern completion Point-D @ 57.21.

Taken in its exchange context, one should also consider that NYSE is effecting a rally to levels that remain sub-surface relative to its all-time high, as follows:

#NYSE - $NYA
- https://www.tradingview.com/e/paqoMPYc/

This $NYA chart demonstrates that within three daily candles, bearish advanced are being erased. However, as defined by my E.A.G.L.E range (10.624.04/10584.23), my predictive analysis and forecasting is capping this relief rally to a target in line with the upper value of that range, namely:

- $NYA Target: "TG-1 = 10624.04 - 17 APR 2014".


PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING:

Looking at the TWTR             chart, my predictive analysis and forecasting has defined a bullish target as:

- TWTR             Target: "TG-1 = 57.81 - 17 APR 2014".

Turns out that this target is barely 0.60 points away from the 5-0 pattern (57.21) just defined above, thus adding credence to the on-going rally and the probability of this level having some restrictive merit against said rally.


OVERALL:

A relief rally seems underway, as per the TWTR             chart and its illustrated exchange context, $NYA. From a broader fundamental perspective, the Fed has remained unclear as to which data it would use to effect or contradict its gradual easing removal. A surprising bearish data release could therefore carry price above the targets defined in above comments, even if Yellen was to merely jawbone the market without acting on her words.

However, I would recommend taking a closer look at both the 3-Month and benchmark 10-year treasuries for any price rallying, as this alone might suffice to time a premature rate increase. If and once this occurs, equity markets would have only one direction to chose.

For the time being, I will leave the system-defined directional indicator as "Neutral", even though my own ("human") directional bias remains neutral to bearish , based on the patterns, predictive and fundamental analyses discussed above.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting


Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)


-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster

Comment: 26 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Lower low remains probable, despite interim rallying with significant overhead bearish entrenchment:
snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
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