Following is a trade recapitulation and added analysis of Twitter:
On February 5th, my predictive analysis and forecasting system raised the question:
"Which Way To The Bear Party?"
Within a few candles, price move towards the target, as I answered:
" ... This Way, Replied The Bears."
On the following week, the system further defined the a new target, namely: TG-2 = 40.26 - 13 FEB 2014:
"Update: ; New probable Target Low"
At this point, I am expecting a relief rally to occur. Looking at price action, a pattern trader might have seen that the lowest of our target fell in line with the completion of a . While a pattern is what I call a "pseudo-pattern" for being defined by an unusual "Zero-X-A-B-C", it is often the gatekeeper to a "normal" pattern named by Scott Carney as a Pattern, "normal" as it is defined by the standard X-A-B-C-D points.
Hence, if a relief rally should occur - as it seems to be on its way since hitting our secondary target dead-on - this would place a pattern completion Point-D @ 57.21.
Taken in its exchange context, one should also consider that NYSE is effecting a rally to levels that remain sub-surface relative to its all-time high, as follows:
#NYSE - $NYA
This $NYA chart demonstrates that within three daily candles, advanced are being erased. However, as defined by my E.A.G.L.E range (10.624.04/10584.23), my predictive analysis and forecasting is capping this relief rally to a target in line with the upper value of that range, namely:
- $NYA Target: "TG-1 = 10624.04 - 17 APR 2014".
Looking at the TWTR chart, my predictive analysis and forecasting has defined a target as:
- TWTR Target: "TG-1 = 57.81 - 17 APR 2014".
Turns out that this target is barely 0.60 points away from the pattern (57.21) just defined above, thus adding credence to the on-going rally and the probability of this level having some restrictive merit against said rally.
A relief rally seems underway, as per the TWTR chart and its illustrated exchange context, $NYA. From a broader fundamental perspective, the Fed has remained unclear as to which data it would use to effect or contradict its gradual easing removal. A surprising data release could therefore carry price above the targets defined in above comments, even if Yellen was to merely jawbone the market without acting on her words.
However, I would recommend taking a closer look at both the and benchmark 10-year treasuries for any price rallying, as this alone might suffice to time a premature rate increase. If and once this occurs, equity markets would have only one direction to chose.
For the time being, I will leave the system-defined directional indicator as "Neutral", even though my own ("human") directional bias remains neutral to , based on the patterns, predictive and fundamental analyses discussed above.
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
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- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
Lower low remains probable, despite interim rallying with significant overhead bearish entrenchment:
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