Part 2 - How to Protect
In the above post, I use the UGAZ chart to find the worst case scenario for shorting. In the first 371 days from Dec 21, 2017 to Jan 3, 2020, a short position will see the largest move UGAZ has ever made against a short position. In the next 371 days, the same UGAZ short position will go on to make more than an 80% gain. As anyone holding a short position should know, the amount of funds dedicated to a trade is critical to prevent blowing up an account. I begin with this, limiting a short position. In the coming posts, I will expand to using UNG or Natgas contracts to cover the short position.
Also in this chart, I've marked the chart from Nov 1 of each year to near Feb 14, to point out the max backward moves for each winter. 2014 goes past 14th of February by 10 days, something that will not be missed when I get to analyzing the rest of the chart.