When looking at ULTA from the Monthly/Weekly view, there is still a lot of downward pressure, even with its latest ER that was slightly better than expected. My long term analysis for ULTA is it will struggle higher. There are many buyers in the 300's that got caught with their pants down with the Aug ER that caused a huge sell off and gap down. Question is how long can those buyers withstand their pain. Once ULTA reaches back into the low 300's I see those buyers that have been experiencing pain this hole time to take a deep breath and sell at close to break even or a little loss. This will cause another wave of selling pressure as the price starts to get away from them again. In addition, I believe that a lot of new buyers will start to enter ULTA around the 250's as the smaller timeframes daily/4hr start to show an upward buy happening, they too will sell off as the larger timeframes monthy/weekly start to sell their positions in the lower 300's. If we fail to reach the 300's before we get our next big downturn then ULTA could be entering a larger sell on the larger timeframes and we steer clear of ULTA for long positions for a while. If for some reason we blow through the low 300's into the mid 300's then that will be very bullish for ULTA and likely we will go on to make higher highs, I just don't see this happening at the moment.
*Please trade at your own risk*
*Please trade at your own risk*