MrRenev

Rare gem: long on this belgian stock.

Long
MrRenev Updated   
EURONEXT:UMI   UMICORE
Hello, I spotted an inconsistence in "the force". Some stocks that have gone down because of the US stock market being bearish in novmber. The news were positive, the company was supposed to be bullish in my opinion, but the general fear due to us tech stocks being way overvalued has forced this company in particular to fall. I am expecting a severe bounce soon.

Umicore is a belgian multinational materials technology and recycling group, in particular they specialize in zinc and advanced products, such as batteries for electric vehicles.

Some technical facts:

- This company has a market cap of 9 billion euros.
- We visited the liquidity pool during the day and rejected that price, the daily candle closed in a hammer .
- We can see bullish divergence on the oscillators, here I am showing macd and rsi because they look good.
- It has a volume of 800.000 shares daily on average, no problem getting filled big orders (for retail at least).

I just want add the cci , looks good too :)

The US stock market also gapped up, and is not looking like it will crash immediatly and drive everything down.

The news are good:
"Insight: Stung by Asian dominance, Germany pours cash into EV battery ventures" - November 9, at the start of the downtrend.
"Germany has earmarked 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) to support a consortium looking to produce electric car battery cells and plans to fund a research facility to develop next-generation solid-state batteries, three sources told Reuters." - November 9.
"About 500,000 electric vehicles ( EVs ) were sold globally in 2016, a figure that is expected to jump sevenfold by 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration." - November 16.
"German chemicals giant BASF (BASFn.DE) is betting on a new recipe for electric car batteries which stretches the time between charges while cutting dependence on nickel to help shave costs and grab more of a growing market." - November 23.


Same boat as this other company I was watching:

Actually all the companies I had my eye on are highly correlated... (while all stocks in the world are "only" moderatly correlated) Probably all move for the same reasons. Interesting area for sure.

These companies are the future, the news is good... I wonder how wise would investing in those be...

But for the shorter term (next couple of weeks) here are my conclusions:
Umicore price SHOULD have gone up. So I believe the news did not get priced in yet (because of global economy/us tech stocks), better, the price actually went below the previous low (unlike BASF ) and the potential bounce is even bigger. And now we are getting a hammer candle? Count me in!
Trade active
Comment: Wow. Ok. This looking like it is going to be a big win.

It gapped up on the next day... Next time I find a rare gem I won't wait for the day to close, just wanted to make sure the daily closed as a hammer, I didn't think it would gap up like this XD


I will take profit when/if it bounces a little higher, but with how the weekly is looking I want to hold for a few weeks I think this can go very far <3 YEEESSS.
Also, I think the dow will go up to 29500 points, and the world stock markets will all be bullish for a while.

Trade closed: target reached: Exploded up.

Tried to take profit but the broker I used for this trade seems to be trash.
So I gave away a bit of profit (no big deal) and exited entirely.
If I use them again I'll have 2 orders then... I don't think they have a minimum fee
Or not use them again.
Still going to follow what it does next. But I am out.

The second one I was watching went way up too... Was kinda hoping it would go lower so I could long, but that would not make sense...

Well, onto the next trade then.
Trade active: Long on BAS now, "the other one".
Comment: I love going against the trend. I got filled at 61.8 counting spread rather than 62.** + spread.

* pro tip.
Comment: Well that's interesting.
A risk reward of 2 is pretty good. Could go close half of the trade when that is reached, and if the world is bullish hold more.

For BAS now, I am expecting it to go up, main reason is this:

Funny how the Dow went up after the Frankfurt Stock Ex closed.

It could gap up tommorow to make for that.
It is just noise, it's not totally random but it's pointless, I do not care about the short term anymore. Made a bunch of estimates and the potential is just so much bigger swing trading... Unless of course there is a bubble and we can follow a pump and make 15% in 2 hours going long on NEO then 20% later on with Cardano etc ;)
But at some point that would not scale that much I think thought. Want to go full billionaire just want to be the best.

I think the DJI is going to do this:

I do not see why not. It was supposed to go to 30k in the first place, and there magically is now a trade truce with China as if the president was a puppet AND he made the FED stop increasing rates probably what they wanted all along? Or it's all just human emotions and they are all oh so predictable.
Comment: Got rekt on BAS. Whatever.
I am now long on the next one. From belgium to germany to switzerland.
I watch a couple of US stocks but it opens later so idk... I just keep trading europe lol.
I have nothing in Forex right now...

I did not go as big as I wanted :( Not enough funds with the particular broker, would take too much time to move money there. I have litteraly 300 euros on my bank account. Everything is spread apart unhomogenously (no idea how its spelled).
I knew regulations would get in my way 1 day...


I think 12$ will get overcut. We'll see.
Comment: Here is Citigroup. Was considering going long 55-56$.
Not as good.

Right now the us stock market is dropping in price because people are afraid by the "death cross". Some random moving average's that crossed. I do not even care or what to know which ones. Irrelevant. All I know is the market equivalent of flat earthers are panic selling for idiotic reasons. GOOD.
Let me make this clear: these death crosses are IDIOTIC. Like they did not see the price going down before? Like it was not 100% (I mean that) certain 3 weeks ago there would be a death cross unless the price went up 300%.



Cringe...
Comment: 1 hour 30 till these useless bankers make their decision and we see how crappy algo's and bad fund managers react.

Dow S&P already started going up maybe because of irrelevant "good news" in the china trade war. Irrelevant. It is too early for a bear market. At least 29500 points for the Dow, and S&P 500 3800. Even the perma bulls are saying we are in a bear market, relax. If I was an investor thought I would have gotten out a while ago, I would not be trying to sell at the very top :p


I bet we will hear "oh wow positive investor sentiment is coming back".
Once up there, going to avoid going long on anything, and short any opportunity there is.

And that trade I am holding. If the bottoming process takes ages I am getting out I will not wait months.
Comment: Guess when the announcement was made?

Comment: STOP PLAYING WITH ME.
I GOT INTO SWING TRADING SO I WOULD NOT HAVE TO CARE ABOUT THIS CRAP (and higher winrate).
THIS IS RIGGED SOMEONE DO SOMETHING.

Comment: Still not stop lossed even with the US crash.
So the correlation... It pulls it down but not "that much" or?

I am still learning about this swing trading strategy, pretty interested in seeing what happens next. Maybe there is no need to be overly careful about the whole market is a particular stock is showing signs of bullishness?
1 counter example is enough to prove somehting is not true, not trying to say it proves the opposite is true...
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.