I've been asked for charting tips. I'm still learning, but I'll explain what I saw; and the factors I considered. First off, I studied candlestick patterns at length. I compared the similar bear/bull patterns that often get mistaken for each other and noted the differences. Like some people can't tell between a bear flag and a bull flag forming. A big clue is the length of the wicks and how far apart the closing prices are. If they're really long wicks the price is getting rejected(top) or bought up(bottom). If the candles are really long there's been some distortion or correction in the price; if they're too small it indicates weakness at that price and a possible reversal of the trend. (see: doji stars) Also note that just because you see a pattern forming doesn't mean it's gonna do what that signal says right away; but the more you see is a good indication... some of the rarer candles and patterns will tip you off to the next candle, though. Like shooting stars.
Another "red flag" for a Bear is the increasing steepness of the bull runs, drawn in solid green. The top of the 12 year Bull-run is a healthy angle of growth. Any time it tries to break out of that channel, or raise the angle, it gets rejected and corrected. In this case, it gets corrected by much steeper Bear corrections, in the short term; but more alarming is the angle of the long term Bear trend emerging! At 3:1 leverage, it is sure to take over for some time, not just a year.
Bulls may see a steep rocket and get excited, but know that the steeper the angle, the steeper the coming correction! With traditional investing, 10%/year is an amazing return! With all this volatility it's more like a casino, where you could make or lose 10% in a day or a week. So be very cautious and use cost-averaging more than you initially think you should. So okay it was getting steep, but how do I know EXACTLY when? Lots of Gaping with Island tops, double tops, triple tops. The long candles increase steepness and indicate a rapid distortion, or uncertainty in the true value of the stock. These eventually lead to corrections the other way.
To find the channels, and plot paths, I identify the trend angles for long term and short term movements then create angled channels, much like Fibo channels, but I move them to the strongest trend lines I found. The bearish trends tend to run through gaped zones at an angle. so like start at an island top of long candles before a previous drop, then through some of the gaping of the drop, specifically where it pauses before another gap, then through to bottom gap of another drop.Dismiss some of the gaping when reading a chart and drawing your lines. Those numbers are called outliers on a data sheet and do not represent the median trends. They are the people who over-paid or sold for a loss during a panic. I also draw and consider long term trends formed over years in my charting and immediate decisions. Never ignore any information!
While actually trading, I use 10/20/50/100/200 Moving Averages and pay attention at all scales, from 1min to 1day. I can tell you by the minute what it's gonna do next and make accurate trades like that. The fibos lined up with your channels are pretty good ways of predicting the top or bottom of a current candle. Another tip is to watch the US100 first and trade on the US500. The US500 tracks the US100 almost perfectly, except the moves are delayed 5-10 minutes so you have time to check the order book and make a decision.
Last, but not least, this is not an atmosphere to be closed-minded in, or ignore information to soothe your political confirmation biases. You need to check that shit at the door or you're gonna lose a lot of money. The market doesn't consider your political views and neither should your investments. As noted previously, a lot of Baby boomers and Trump supporters are losing money because they ignore information to protect their political feelings. Hope that helps! I'm open to learning more or any questions anyone may have. Thanks and good luck!
Another "red flag" for a Bear is the increasing steepness of the bull runs, drawn in solid green. The top of the 12 year Bull-run is a healthy angle of growth. Any time it tries to break out of that channel, or raise the angle, it gets rejected and corrected. In this case, it gets corrected by much steeper Bear corrections, in the short term; but more alarming is the angle of the long term Bear trend emerging! At 3:1 leverage, it is sure to take over for some time, not just a year.
Bulls may see a steep rocket and get excited, but know that the steeper the angle, the steeper the coming correction! With traditional investing, 10%/year is an amazing return! With all this volatility it's more like a casino, where you could make or lose 10% in a day or a week. So be very cautious and use cost-averaging more than you initially think you should. So okay it was getting steep, but how do I know EXACTLY when? Lots of Gaping with Island tops, double tops, triple tops. The long candles increase steepness and indicate a rapid distortion, or uncertainty in the true value of the stock. These eventually lead to corrections the other way.
To find the channels, and plot paths, I identify the trend angles for long term and short term movements then create angled channels, much like Fibo channels, but I move them to the strongest trend lines I found. The bearish trends tend to run through gaped zones at an angle. so like start at an island top of long candles before a previous drop, then through some of the gaping of the drop, specifically where it pauses before another gap, then through to bottom gap of another drop.Dismiss some of the gaping when reading a chart and drawing your lines. Those numbers are called outliers on a data sheet and do not represent the median trends. They are the people who over-paid or sold for a loss during a panic. I also draw and consider long term trends formed over years in my charting and immediate decisions. Never ignore any information!
While actually trading, I use 10/20/50/100/200 Moving Averages and pay attention at all scales, from 1min to 1day. I can tell you by the minute what it's gonna do next and make accurate trades like that. The fibos lined up with your channels are pretty good ways of predicting the top or bottom of a current candle. Another tip is to watch the US100 first and trade on the US500. The US500 tracks the US100 almost perfectly, except the moves are delayed 5-10 minutes so you have time to check the order book and make a decision.
Last, but not least, this is not an atmosphere to be closed-minded in, or ignore information to soothe your political confirmation biases. You need to check that shit at the door or you're gonna lose a lot of money. The market doesn't consider your political views and neither should your investments. As noted previously, a lot of Baby boomers and Trump supporters are losing money because they ignore information to protect their political feelings. Hope that helps! I'm open to learning more or any questions anyone may have. Thanks and good luck!
Comment:
P.S. Bear trading strategy goes something like this. Identify a correction and the approximate price zone, for your target. Say that trade could make you $1000 and you know it's coming! Well, set your stop limit at $250 or $200 and you can be wrong 4-5 times and still break even! If you're right half the time or more you'll be doing quite well! Now the market does usually always go up. Perma-bulls are not wrong, per-say; but they are too proud to consider a 3+ year bear market after such a historic bull-run.
Comment:
Also, most perma-bulls have never studied the Japanese or Chinese charts with loooooong bear markets.... It is not impossible that we will see similar soon.