US30 Correction Continues
It's beginning to look to me like this week's simple A-B-C down is going to produce a double three. This is why I don't "buy the dip." Corrections can morph into too many different forms, and it's very difficult to tell when they're over (until you're already well into wave 3 of the proceeding move). In this instance, I assumed Minor wave 4 had completed yesterday because of how nicely it had respected Fib targets, but it turns out that was probably just one leg of a more complex correction.
The depth of this correction actually fits better into the expected Fib range of 0.236 - 0.5. You might notice that range is a little higher than where it's marked in my previous posts. That's because I had to rework some things on my count. Those who know Elliott Wave, take a look at this blunder:
What's wrong with this count? There's a big no-no here. I think I must have been in the middle of reworking counts and got my degrees confused at some point. I'm not sure what happened here. Notice the size of my Minuette wave 2 (blue) compared to my Minute wave 2 (orange) and Minor wave 2 (green). Minuette is the smaller of those degrees, yet its wave is the largest here. That's a degree violation.
Degree violations are acceptable in Elliott Wave theory, provided they violate in either price or time. But here I had a violation in price and time. I think that's wrong. So I've modified my count to expand the size of the prior correction, which I'm now interpreting as an Intermediate wave 4 triangle. It's not a clean triangle on the US30, but it looks clearer if considering only the US sessions (the C dip below the dashed green line does not cross that line if considering only US stock market hours).
This also makes that mess in the first half of wave D a little easier to deal with. I originally had that as a 1-2 1-2 of the Minute and Minor degrees, because it doesn't look impulsive. However, that's what results in the degree violation. It makes much more sense to take that as part of the overall Intermediate wave 4.
This results in moving my Minor waves 1-2 up to the Oct 26-27 pullback from 35.9k to 35.5k, which is comparatively much more similar in size to the currently developing correction off the Nov 8 high. That's what pushed the Fib range up.
The good news is we should know very soon whether this correction is complete. If this is indeed a Minor wave 4 pullback, prices should reverse between 36000 - 35900, if they haven't already begun to do so.
The depth of this correction actually fits better into the expected Fib range of 0.236 - 0.5. You might notice that range is a little higher than where it's marked in my previous posts. That's because I had to rework some things on my count. Those who know Elliott Wave, take a look at this blunder:
What's wrong with this count? There's a big no-no here. I think I must have been in the middle of reworking counts and got my degrees confused at some point. I'm not sure what happened here. Notice the size of my Minuette wave 2 (blue) compared to my Minute wave 2 (orange) and Minor wave 2 (green). Minuette is the smaller of those degrees, yet its wave is the largest here. That's a degree violation.
Degree violations are acceptable in Elliott Wave theory, provided they violate in either price or time. But here I had a violation in price and time. I think that's wrong. So I've modified my count to expand the size of the prior correction, which I'm now interpreting as an Intermediate wave 4 triangle. It's not a clean triangle on the US30, but it looks clearer if considering only the US sessions (the C dip below the dashed green line does not cross that line if considering only US stock market hours).
This also makes that mess in the first half of wave D a little easier to deal with. I originally had that as a 1-2 1-2 of the Minute and Minor degrees, because it doesn't look impulsive. However, that's what results in the degree violation. It makes much more sense to take that as part of the overall Intermediate wave 4.
This results in moving my Minor waves 1-2 up to the Oct 26-27 pullback from 35.9k to 35.5k, which is comparatively much more similar in size to the currently developing correction off the Nov 8 high. That's what pushed the Fib range up.
The good news is we should know very soon whether this correction is complete. If this is indeed a Minor wave 4 pullback, prices should reverse between 36000 - 35900, if they haven't already begun to do so.