FX:US30   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
4899 10
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this analysis failed terribly
Three of the 16 bear market lows occurred in year one of the presidential term, 12 in year two, one in year three, and none in year four (the election year)

Average = 1.87 years into presidential term

Intrestring a 60% decline , its a possibilty which i would love to see happening :D. Lets short ourselfs rich and then make the biggest bull in history ! Money for all! $$
I wouldn't call the declines depressions... recessions, yes....
Depressions are a whole new level of pain... most recessions pull back 20-60%,

The 1929 recession on the DJIA that caused the depression lost 90% of it's peak value, which is why the stockmarket took such a long time to recover confidence and there was suffering all round due to no confidence, and eventually through the pain - madmen like hitler got elected into power and caused a world war...

I hope it does what you are suggesting as I think it would make thi speriod look like the 1970's rather than the 1930's if they kick the can down the road,
Hopefully the fed stops playing games with the market and doesn't do something stupid like QE4... which will be good for the short term but lead us down a road where I fear we will possibly have a 80%+ decline which WILL lead to a depression...

We know the fed's toolkit, and all of it is based on debasing the currency and creating debt, bailing/ buying toxic assets from the ultra rich (=moral hazard) let's hope they learn these tools only mask a deeper underlying issue which is excessive risk taking with little or no accountability by people who do NOT estimate or manage their risk well...
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any logic
EXCAVO kmk.msp
Kondratiev has a logic
+1 Reply
kmk.msp EXCAVO
if you dont know Kondratiev, u know nothing...
EXCAVO FranciscoSimon
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