11/03/24 - 15/03/24
Welcome to another weekly analyses idea.
As my title states: The Bears Taking Over. So what are my reasons for this?
Going back to Fri Feb 23, new historical highs were created at 39281.9 at 10:00AM EST. 2 weeks later and price has failed to break those highs or even come close to it. Instead we have been on a downtrend ever since making LHs and LLs until finally signalling a 23H HL at 38455.0 on Tues March 5th.
As I always say, each week a highest point and lowest point are created. And for those who may not already know. The usual weekly movements for US30 are as follows:
Monday - Tuesday: bearish retracements to create lower limits for the week.
Thursday - Friday: bullish move to create highest limits for the week.
A prime example of this is even shown in my descriptions of the Highs and Lows.
Fri Feb 23, new historical highs @ 39281.9 at 10:00AM EST.
Tues March 5th, 23H HL at 38455.0.
But from what US30 has shown, since the break of new historical highs, each subsequent week price has made lower lows during the days of retracements followed by LHs on the days for the bullish trend. This is clearly shown on the 11H TF which has been making a series of LHs. Each time price tries to make a new high it is rejected and makes a new low for the week which suggest that the bulls are weak and the bears are gaining strength.
Please check my chart for a better description and visual of this.
So what does this mean going forward?
On Friday Friday March 8th, price failed to make a HH and instead made a LH @38951.5 on the 11H TF. Since the 11H LH TF is the biggest TF to make a High, price must now sell to create a 11H LL which would translate to a HL Daily TF. (Note: a LL is always a HL on your bigger TF)
As I have marked off in two yellow boxes, I am looking for this weeks trade to repeat history with a similar move to what I highlighted in yellow on the left. On the 1H TF in the yellow box to the left, price made a series of Highs/ HHs and HLs before breaking structure to form a LH @ 39070.8. After this LH was formed, price then sold to 23H HL @ 38455.0 on Tues March 5th.
Trading Plan:
1. Since the 1H TF is coming from a HH, I will wait for it to signal a HL first. And if history is repeated, this HL should be signalled by Monday before NYSE open.
2. Once a HL is signalled, I will wait for it's corresponding LH to be completed. This LH will be the confirmation to a downtrend and so it is very important that you wait for it to be signalled.
3. Enter sell position at 1H LH
4. Exit sell position at Daily HL. And if history is repeated, the Daily HL should be completed at by Tuesday March 12th.
5. Secure profits and take the buys back up to the end of the week with a biggest TF at a LH (this should be the 11H LH).
Therefore, I will only be taking two major intraday trades this week:
1. The sell on Monday from the 11H LH to the 11H Low or the Daily HL
2. The buy on Tues/Wed from the 11H Low to 11H LH.
Welcome to another weekly analyses idea.
As my title states: The Bears Taking Over. So what are my reasons for this?
Going back to Fri Feb 23, new historical highs were created at 39281.9 at 10:00AM EST. 2 weeks later and price has failed to break those highs or even come close to it. Instead we have been on a downtrend ever since making LHs and LLs until finally signalling a 23H HL at 38455.0 on Tues March 5th.
As I always say, each week a highest point and lowest point are created. And for those who may not already know. The usual weekly movements for US30 are as follows:
Monday - Tuesday: bearish retracements to create lower limits for the week.
Thursday - Friday: bullish move to create highest limits for the week.
A prime example of this is even shown in my descriptions of the Highs and Lows.
Fri Feb 23, new historical highs @ 39281.9 at 10:00AM EST.
Tues March 5th, 23H HL at 38455.0.
But from what US30 has shown, since the break of new historical highs, each subsequent week price has made lower lows during the days of retracements followed by LHs on the days for the bullish trend. This is clearly shown on the 11H TF which has been making a series of LHs. Each time price tries to make a new high it is rejected and makes a new low for the week which suggest that the bulls are weak and the bears are gaining strength.
Please check my chart for a better description and visual of this.
So what does this mean going forward?
On Friday Friday March 8th, price failed to make a HH and instead made a LH @38951.5 on the 11H TF. Since the 11H LH TF is the biggest TF to make a High, price must now sell to create a 11H LL which would translate to a HL Daily TF. (Note: a LL is always a HL on your bigger TF)
As I have marked off in two yellow boxes, I am looking for this weeks trade to repeat history with a similar move to what I highlighted in yellow on the left. On the 1H TF in the yellow box to the left, price made a series of Highs/ HHs and HLs before breaking structure to form a LH @ 39070.8. After this LH was formed, price then sold to 23H HL @ 38455.0 on Tues March 5th.
Trading Plan:
1. Since the 1H TF is coming from a HH, I will wait for it to signal a HL first. And if history is repeated, this HL should be signalled by Monday before NYSE open.
2. Once a HL is signalled, I will wait for it's corresponding LH to be completed. This LH will be the confirmation to a downtrend and so it is very important that you wait for it to be signalled.
3. Enter sell position at 1H LH
4. Exit sell position at Daily HL. And if history is repeated, the Daily HL should be completed at by Tuesday March 12th.
5. Secure profits and take the buys back up to the end of the week with a biggest TF at a LH (this should be the 11H LH).
Therefore, I will only be taking two major intraday trades this week:
1. The sell on Monday from the 11H LH to the 11H Low or the Daily HL
2. The buy on Tues/Wed from the 11H Low to 11H LH.