Dow Jones (US30) projection analysis highlights a medium-term to
We are witnessing subdued trading as the market awaits the Personal Consumption Expenditure figure (PCE) on Friday, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. With this important data release falling on the Bank Holiday Good Friday, low liquidity could result in dramatic price action. A higher-than-expected print (exp MoM +0.3% YoY +2.8%) could send stocks tumbling.
From a technical perspective, a medium-term top could be in place.
US30 - price action has formed a bearish expanding wedge pattern. On a break of the trend of higher lows at 38,706 the measured move target is 38,020.
Bespoke support levels are located at 39,232, 38,368 and 35,848. Using the Mar 21 swing high of 39,950 as a top, we can see a bearish Elliott Wave count (5 waves) down to our long-term support of 35,848.
Conclusion: I expect limited price action up until Friday's release. Intraday support is located at 39,232. On a long-term projection, my preferred stance would be to sell into the second wave rally (red arrow) for a potential move down to the long-term support at 35,848. The first significant support is located at 38,368.
Resistance: 39,640 (intraday resistance), 39,950 (all time high), 40,100 (higher highs)
Support: 39,232 (bespoke), 38,706 (higher lows), 38,368 (bespoke – projected wave 1)
From a technical perspective, a medium-term top could be in place.
US30 - price action has formed a bearish expanding wedge pattern. On a break of the trend of higher lows at 38,706 the measured move target is 38,020.
Bespoke support levels are located at 39,232, 38,368 and 35,848. Using the Mar 21 swing high of 39,950 as a top, we can see a bearish Elliott Wave count (5 waves) down to our long-term support of 35,848.
Conclusion: I expect limited price action up until Friday's release. Intraday support is located at 39,232. On a long-term projection, my preferred stance would be to sell into the second wave rally (red arrow) for a potential move down to the long-term support at 35,848. The first significant support is located at 38,368.
Resistance: 39,640 (intraday resistance), 39,950 (all time high), 40,100 (higher highs)
Support: 39,232 (bespoke), 38,706 (higher lows), 38,368 (bespoke – projected wave 1)