Divergence between, manufacturing growth and Commodity index How long until commodities return to correlation with real growth? Demand destruction from inflation will eventually catch up to commodities and we should see a massive pullback.
Key stats
About United States Commodity Index Fund ETV
Expense ratio
1.07%
Home page
Inception date
Aug 10, 2010
USCI aims to be the ultimate contango killer. Each month, it picks the seven commodities with the greatest backwardation (or least contango) and the seven commodities with the greatest 12-month price momentum, with the caveat that it holds at least one precious metal, industrial metal, energy, livestock, soft, and grain commodity. From there, it equally weights the futures contract on each commodity with the greatest backwardation or least contango. The 14 commodity contracts are selected from a pool of 27 eligible futures contract and are determined by quant analysis relating to its prices. Investors should note that USCI issues a K-1 at tax time.
Classification
What's in the fund
Exposure type
Futures
Cash
Government
Bonds, Cash & Other100.00%
Futures66.40%
Cash20.53%
Government13.08%
Nailed the top. Now we dip.
First impulse off the bottom was well underway before the big news.
Now that everyone is piling in it's time to look the other way for a while as we figure what covid will look like this summer.
My guess is that the first dead bounce on equities and tech will be astounding, following a small
OIL to dominate in 2022 H1 I believe that oil will dominate the commodities sector in 2022 first half, despite a strong dollar, pushing the commodity index to 2014 bear market breakdown levels. Strong dollar in latter 2022 will crush this trade for anyone holding on too tightly.
Then we won't know what the hell we're going
Resistance alert for CommodityCommodity index is reluctant to pierce the aforesaid 37 (R1) level coincides with 200w SMA indicates the index will take a breather to neutralize its prolonged overbought condition as seen on RSI. The index could make a return move to support level at S1 or further to S2 before it could introduce a
10-yr market cycle for FX, commodities, value, & global stocks?The US dollar tends to trade in a ten-year cycle relative to global currencies. It outperforms for ten years, then underperforms for ten years, then outperforms, and so on. This year we seem to have ended a cycle of outperformance when the US dollar broke its ten-year trend line (orange line on the
uscinice balance fund. Look up the holdings. Not heavy weighted in oil like others. Holds nickel,tin,zinc, wheat, sugar,pigs,cows...gold each roughly 7%. Good for the long term buy and hold portfolio
Commodity Markets can be Strengthened !I expect an increase in the USCI (US Commodity Index Fund) Index.
This could be a forerunner of the rise of commodity-based Stocks and Commodities.
It would be more accurate to turn to single commodities and stocks rather than this fund.
We'il talk about going from general to private later.
Nevert
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