Currently sitting in extreme fear (15 of 100) and daily divergences on macd.
Bitcoin is going to hold around 39k to jump many stop losses and accomplish the objective for breaking the big lateral (51,000 - 45,000).
A flat pattern is a very strong one. No one expects to reverse the trend on Bitcoin. As no one expected to fall at current levels 3 months...
It is always difficult to make a prediction in any asset, but right now BTC is making it even more harsh to predict its behaviour.
I present 3 case-scenarios to conclude this lateral range.
In my opinion, GREEN is the most probable because:
1. We have extreme fear sentiment levels.
2. People don't think we can achieve 100k target anymore, but nothing has...
Seems like we will look for 41,000 support short term.
If things get worse we could retest 30,000 massive support.
Worst casescenario would be 24,000.
In my opinion we'll gold 41,000 and then pump hard up to 110,000
Sell around end of year at 120k and start buying on January 2023 in the middle of the bear market.
Bull cycles extend around +135 days and are less explosive than previous halvings.
Bear cycles have less draw-downs but last the same, they are more like an hibernation than a 90% correction.
With current inflation published in USA gold has woken up. Let's see if this is the good one and we start to build up after 1 year.
My long term objective is 2800$ and I'm pretty bullish on gold when bitcoin enters bear market in the next year.
You can wait for it to confirm the lateral breakout and retest the broken level.
If the RUSSELL 2000 breaks this 10-Month lateral movement from my POV is the best signal that we are still in a bull run, and at least we've a 10% upside potential.