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USD/CAD Jackson Hole Meeting Update

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FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
United States Fed Funds Rate

In July of 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented an anticipated move by raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, reaching the bracket of 5.25% to 5.5%. This decision, aligning with market projections, propelled borrowing costs to their loftiest point since January 2001.

Amidst this decision, policymakers reiterated their commitment to vigilant monitoring of incoming data's implications on the economic outlook. This proactive approach would enable them to make necessary adjustments to the monetary policy stance in case emerging risks could potentially hinder the achievement of both inflation and employment goals. Policymakers emphasized their consideration of a broad spectrum of factors, encompassing labor market conditions, inflationary pressures, inflation expectations, as well as global financial dynamics.

The release of meeting minutes on August 16th revealed that a majority of participants maintained their perspective on considerable upward risks to inflation. This perception suggested a potential requirement for additional tightening of monetary policy.

United States Inflation Rate

In July 2023, the annual inflation rate in the United States picked up momentum, reaching 3.2%, a rise from June's 3%, albeit slightly below the forecasted 3.3%. This shift marked an interruption in the twelve consecutive months of decrease, largely attributed to base effects. Notably, a year prior, inflation had initiated a descent from its peak of 9.1%.

During July 2023, the energy sector saw a decrease of 12.5% in costs, a less pronounced drop compared to June's 16.7%. This decline was less severe for fuel oil (-26.5% compared to -36.6%), gasoline (-19.9% compared to -26.5%), and utility gas service (-13.7% compared to -18.6%). Conversely, the cost of apparel increased by 3.2% (up from 3.1%), along with a larger uptick in transportation services costs, which rose to 9% (compared to 8.2%).

On the other hand, electricity prices experienced a more modest increase of 3%, a decrease from June's 5.4%. Inflation rates decelerated for food (4.9% compared to 5.7%), shelter (7.7% compared to 7.8%), and new vehicles (3.5% compared to 4.1%). Medical services witnessed a decline in cost by 1.5% (as opposed to the previous -0.8%), and prices for used cars and trucks dropped by 5.6% (compared to the previous -5.2%).

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 4.7% in July from June's 4.8%, slightly below the projected 4.8%.

United States GDP Growth Rate

In the second quarter of 2023, the U.S. economy exhibited a robust annualized growth of 2.4% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the 2% expansion of the previous period and exceeding market predictions of 1.8%. This revelation emerged from the advance estimate.

A notable driver of this growth was the sharp acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, which soared by 7.7% (compared to the earlier 0.6%). This surge was led by a notable recovery in equipment investment, which posted a remarkable 10.8% growth (rebounding from the previous -8.9%), and intellectual property products, which increased by 3.9% (up from 3.1%). Additionally, private inventories contributed positively to growth, adding 0.14 percentage points, a notable reversal from the negative contribution of -2.14 in Q1.

In contrast, consumer spending experienced a significant slowdown, registering at 1.6% growth (in contrast to the previous 4.2%). This deceleration, despite surpassing market expectations, reflected a moderation in inflation and continued tightness in the labor market. While spending on goods witnessed a sharp deceleration (0.7% compared to the earlier 6%), expenditure on services remained robust, growing at 2.1% (compared to 3.2%).

Public expenditure increased at a much softer pace, posting a growth of 2.6% (compared to 5%). However, net trade exerted a negative impact on growth, subtracting 0.12 percentage points, primarily due to a 10.8% drop in exports and a comparatively smaller decline of 7.8% in imports. Notably, residential investment continued its downward trajectory, declining by 4.2% (compared to the previous -4%).

United States Unemployment Rate

In July 2023, the unemployment rate in the United States experienced a marginal decline, settling at 3.5%, compared to June's 3.6%. This figure notably surpassed market expectations, which had anticipated a rate of 3.6%. The ranks of the unemployed saw a reduction of 116,000 individuals, bringing the total to 5.841 million. In tandem, employment levels displayed a positive trajectory, rising by 268,000, culminating in a total of 161.262 million employed individuals.

The broader measure of unemployment, encompassing those who desire employment but have ceased searching, as well as those working part-time due to the inability to secure full-time positions, was indicated by the U-6 unemployment rate. This gauge fell to 6.7% in July, a decrease from June's 6.9%.

The labor force participation rate, a key indicator of workforce engagement, remained stable at 62.6%. Importantly, this rate held its ground at the highest level recorded since March 2020.

United States Current Account

In the first quarter of 2023, the United States registered a current account deficit amounting to $219.3 billion. This figure stood higher than the upwardly revised deficit of $216.2 billion noted in the preceding quarter, as well as surpassing expectations of a $217.5 billion deficit. This deficit, equivalent to 3.3% of the current-dollar Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reflects the balance of trade and financial flows.

Examining the components, the secondary income gap expanded to $49.6 billion from the prior $40.7 billion. This shift was propelled by a decrease in receipts attributed to general government transfers, particularly fines and penalties, while payments increased due to a surge in private transfers, primarily insurance-related transfers.

Meanwhile, the primary income surplus narrowed to $31.3 billion, a decrease from the previous $38.1 billion. This shift resulted from a scenario where payments outpaced receipts. The surge in payments was mainly attributed to interest on loans and deposits, owing to elevated short-term interest rates.

In contrast, the goods and services gap contracted to $201 billion from the previous $213.5 billion. This was influenced by a surge in exports, notably of medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical products, along with goods transferred through the Presidential Drawdown Authority. Imports, on the other hand, experienced a reduction, largely due to a decrease in petroleum and related products, as well as chemicals.

United States Federal Government Budget

In 2022, it is anticipated that the United States will exhibit a Government Budget deficit that corresponds to 5.8% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product.

Canada Interest Rate

In July 2023, the Bank of Canada proceeded with its anticipated course of action by raising the target for its overnight rate by 25 basis points to reach 5%. This decision aligned with market expectations, reinforcing the previous surprise rate hike of 25 basis points in the preceding meeting. This move marked an extension of the central bank's ongoing tightening cycle, which had experienced a brief pause in March and April.

The central bank's Governing Council underscored the pivotal role of stronger-than-anticipated consumption and persistently tight labor markets in sustaining inflationary pressures within the services sector. This warranted another adjustment in borrowing costs, reflective of the bank's commitment to manage these pressures effectively.

Consequently, the bank updated its projections to indicate that the anticipated deceleration in inflation would occur at a more extended timeframe than previously predicted. In this updated outlook, inflation is projected to remain around the 3% range for the upcoming year before gradually easing to meet the 2% target by the middle of 2025.

The central bank emphasized its ongoing vigilance in assessing the dynamics of core inflation as well as the overall outlook for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. This commitment is grounded in the bank's resolute intention to restore price stability for the benefit of Canadians.

Canada Inflation Rate

In July 2023, Canada experienced a noteworthy rise in its annual inflation rate, reaching 3.3%. This increase marked a notable uptick from the previous month's 2.8% and surpassed market expectations of 3%. Several factors contributed to this inflationary trend.

Energy prices exhibited a lesser decline of -8.2%, in contrast to June's -14.6%. This shift was primarily attributed to gasoline, which registered a decrease of -12.9%, an improvement from June's -21.6%. The moderation in decline was attributed to a base-year effect. Moreover, electricity prices demonstrated an accelerated increase, rising by 11.7% compared to June's 5.8%.

The mortgage interest cost index continued its upward trajectory, posting a record year-over-year gain of +30.6%. This index remained the most significant contributor to the overall headline inflation rate.

On the other hand, prices for groceries registered a slowdown in growth, settling at 8.5% compared to June's 9.1%. This deceleration was driven by factors such as fresh fruit and bakery products. Additionally, prices for traveler accommodation exhibited a decline in the pace of growth, falling to 4.2% from June's 12.9%. Notably, prices for travel tours recorded a decrease of 1.2%.

Furthermore, costs experienced further declines in specific categories, including natural gas (-15.7% compared to June's -5.8%) and airfares (-12.7% compared to June's -3.5%).

From a monthly perspective, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% in July, marking a significant jump from June's 0.1% gain. This increase was largely attributed to higher prices for travel tours, as July typically marks a peak travel month.

Canada GDP Growth Rate

In the first quarter of 2023, the Canadian economy demonstrated a robust rebound, expanding by 0.8%. This growth marked a significant recovery from the previous period's stagnation and exceeded market projections of a 0.4% expansion. This outcome surpassed the forecasts of the Bank of Canada (BoC), which had anticipated weaker growth for the entire year, potentially allowing for a resumption of its tightening cycle if inflation persisted at elevated levels.

Exports of both goods and services played a pivotal role in this growth, surging by 2.4%. This acceleration came in contrast to the 0.5% increase recorded in the fourth quarter. The growth in exports was fueled by heightened sales of automobiles, precious metals, and grains. Imports, on the other hand, experienced a more subdued uptick of 0.2%, with increased energy imports offsetting lower acquisitions of automobiles, precious metals, and clothing.

During this period, household consumption displayed a notable expansion for both goods (1.5%) and services (1.3%). This growth was particularly significant as it followed two consecutive quarters of minimal expansion.

However, certain sectors faced contractions. Housing, for instance, witnessed a decline of -3.9%, while business investments also decreased by -2.5%. These contractions were largely attributed to the impact of higher interest rates set by the Bank of Canada.

On an annualized basis, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exhibited an expansion of 3.1%, underscoring the underlying momentum of the Canadian economy.

Canada Unemployment Rate

In July 2023, Canada's unemployment rate experienced a slight uptick, reaching 5.5%, a modest increase from the previous month's rate of 5.4%. This movement was in line with market projections and highlighted a trend of three consecutive increases. The current unemployment rate is reminiscent of levels observed in January 2022, indicating a certain softening in the Canadian labor market. Nevertheless, it's important to note that the current figure remains notably below pre-pandemic levels, which holds implications for potential future actions by the Bank of Canada (BoC), including the possibility of raising interest rates come September.

The increase in unemployment equated to an additional 28 thousand people becoming unemployed, bringing the total to 1,116,800. The demographic shifts in unemployment showed notable increases among young individuals and those within the core-aged female population.

Interestingly, a significant proportion of the unemployed Canadian population—53.6%—was categorized as being outside of the labor force in the preceding month. Comparatively, only 38.7% of those who were part of June's labor force experienced job losses.

In terms of employment figures, the Canadian economy saw a net loss of 6,400 jobs, diverging from market expectations that anticipated a gain of 21,100 jobs. This surprising trend was driven by a decline of 27,500 jobs in goods-producing sectors, offset by an increase of 21,200 jobs in services-producing sectors.

Canada Current Account

In the first quarter of 2023, Canada's current account balance showed a deficit of CAD 6.2 billion. This figure was smaller than market expectations, which had forecasted a deficit of CAD 8.85 billion, and it also marked a decrease from the downwardly revised CAD 8.1 billion deficit recorded in the previous period.

The investment income deficit experienced a notable reduction, declining from CAD -3.4 billion in Q4 to CAD -0.9 billion in the current quarter. Moreover, the primary income deficit contracted to CAD 2.4 billion from CAD 4.9 billion in Q4. This shift was attributed to a rise in profits earned by Canadian direct investors abroad, which increased by CAD 2.5 billion. Additionally, profits earned by foreign direct investors in Canada also contributed to this reduction, rising by CAD 1.9 billion.

In terms of secondary income, the shortfall saw a significant decrease, dwindling from CAD 1.2 billion to CAD 0.4 billion.

However, the goods and services deficit widened to CAD 3.4 billion from CAD 2 billion in Q4. The services deficit played a role in this increase, expanding from CAD 4 billion to CAD 4.7 billion. Meanwhile, the goods surplus experienced a decline, decreasing from CAD 2.1 billion to CAD 1.3 billion.

Canada Government Budget

In 2021, Canada's Government Budget incurred a deficit amounting to 3.60 percent of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

📉 The scenario I am playing out assumes the start of declines in the current week. I do not exclude changing the scenario in case of a sudden change in the market situation. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, In case of a change of outlook I will publish an update in the next post

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