Loonie Pauses at a Cluster of Wave Relationships - 1.2800 Key

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1423 25
The USDCAD appears to be carving out some impulsive moves higher. This makes sense given that USOil has been slipping lower and appears poised to revisit $45/bl.

There is a cluster of wave relationship showing up in the 1.27 handle. If we successfully break above 1.28 (I’m showing a small degree false breakout zone of 1.2800-1.2820), then I’m eyeing 1.30-1.31.
Above 1.28, prices should hold above the previous wave 1’s.

Due to the multiple wave relationships in the 1.27 handle, a dip to 1.2600 is higher probability. This would be a dip to buy and let the market dictate what happens from there from an Elliott Wave perspective.

The trade plan for the USDCAD is simple, buy a break above 1.2800 or a dip to near 1.2600.
This move higher into 1.2800 is not looking real clean right now. We hit the false breakout zone without a clean impulse...be mindful that a dip to 1.2600 is still possible under the original chart pattern.
IvanLabrie JWagnerFXTrader
I guess rates tomorrow will resolve this 4th.
UPDATE: With CAD employment a snoozer - still looking for a resolution to wave iv. Key levels in the original post are still on watch.

Cfsqbwn. JWagnerFXTrader
It break down trendline short term..
Cfsqbwn. Cfsqbwn.
false breakout...
+1 Reply
Yes, still waiting for a 5 wave move higher followed by 3 waves lower. Notice how in the yellow boxes below they are just 3 waves up. Until we get the 5-3, we wait.

+1 Reply
Hi mate.. Do you thing (iv) has finished??
Possibly - but I would prefer deeper levels. This has been a VERY VERY shallow retracement thus far. Plus, you have the 1.2800-1.2820 false breakout zone ahead of us. Entering prematurely creates a lower probability trade. We haven't broken the grey resistance line yet.

I'm looking for a small degree 5 wave impulsive move higher, followed by a 3 wave downward move to improve our bullish entry. If we immediately move up to the grey line now, that might be our 5 waves higher from this morning.

+1 Reply
Glad to see that your opinion matches mine. I have discovered you only a few days ago and I am following you now. I had a similar analysis on Brent Oil for the last 2 months. Your fundamental cues and analytical logic regarding OIL and USD/CAD makes lots of sense. Those are the primary fields I am interested as well. Regards and looking forward for more exchange.
Clear chart with concise fundamentals. I agree with and appreciate what you've shown here.
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