JWagnerFXTrader
Long

Loonie Pauses at a Cluster of Wave Relationships - 1.2800 Key

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
1416 25 18
The USDCAD             appears to be carving out some impulsive moves higher. This makes sense given that USOil             has been slipping lower and appears poised to revisit $45/bl.

There is a cluster of wave relationship showing up in the 1.27 handle. If we successfully break above 1.28 (I’m showing a small degree false breakout zone of 1.2800-1.2820), then I’m eyeing 1.30-1.31.
Above 1.28, prices should hold above the previous wave 1’s.

Due to the multiple wave relationships in the 1.27 handle, a dip to 1.2600 is higher probability. This would be a dip to buy and let the market dictate what happens from there from an Elliott Wave perspective.

The trade plan for the USDCAD             is simple, buy a break above 1.2800 or a dip to near 1.2600.
Curious if speculation about the BOC lowering interest rates here in Canada has anything to do with the USD runup
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO flyingdutchfinancial
Hi Flyingdutch - actually, as a result of the BOC communication in April, I have my eye on relative pricing of Brent vs WTI. Canadian's purchase oil at the retail pump mostly based on Brent. Producers sell oil more heavily weighted on WTI (and West Canada Select). Therefore, if WTI cannot keep up with Brent, CAD likely suffers. On the flip side, if WTI outpaces Brent, CAD may outperform.

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IvanLabrie PRO JWagnerFXTrader
Great fundamental cues.
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More or less the same view.
Not sure on a new impulsive rally yet. I think this is DXY's wave 4 still, and a B rally in a larger flat in the case of USCAD.
Do you see it?
Elongated flat A down, then this ABC zigzag up as B and pending impulsive down C.
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Hi Ivan, I think you are referring to scenario #3 (in the de-emphasized note). Is that similar to what you are referring to? Perhaps a chart from you will clarify. Thank you.
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This is a short term trade right?
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Hi Lighthouse - selling USDCAD to 1.26 would be risky. In this case, there isn't a whole lot of profit potential based on the risk to short. However, if we get to 1.26, then we set up some good RR ratio long trades.

The long opportunity is for a couple hundred pips so it may drag on for a few days.
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Yahia.Awes JWagnerFXTrader
I reconsidered my plan, you are right. Only the price will tell where the next top is. Every dip is a buy!
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Also, keep in mind, SSI is clocking in at -2.94...this means 75% of retail traders are already positioned to the short side of the pair. The number of short orders have increased nearly 50% over the past 2 weeks. They are already in the position, so they become a future supply of buyers to close out their trades.
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Couldn't agree more Mr. Wagner! Im looking for a bigger move higher to the 140 to 142 level. Im long from 121.500 and again at 122 and 123. A dip to 126 i will be adding again, the wave point up. Add in the weakness of oil, the weakness of CAD economy and SSI growing more net short this has the makings of a great trade....

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You've absolutely nailed it on this one Dan...well done! These trades can make the trading year. (By virtue of that comment, I'm not suggesting the USDCAD WILL continue higher...but simply multi-hundred pip moves create a large buffer in the account.)
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norberg_dan JWagnerFXTrader
added on 7-10 at 126.6 and 126.8, feeling pretty good right now. Dip back to 128.300 will be adding again...
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NIIICCCEEE! Beautiful trade for you from the beginning to the scaling in.
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norberg_dan JWagnerFXTrader
As a newer trader of almost two years much i have learned is because of you and the monday opening webinar. I have been on a absolute tear this year and we have spoke about many of my trades. These would not have been possible if not for your help and guidance. Thanks so much!!!!
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Clear chart with concise fundamentals. I agree with and appreciate what you've shown here.
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Thank you for the kind words Jake. I'm glad to hear it is helpful for you.

Check out my reply to Lighthouse above, I neglected to include the sentiment readings in the original picture...extreme pessimism in the pair which is fuel for further gains (it is a contrarian signal). I thought you might find it helpful as well.
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Glad to see that your opinion matches mine. I have discovered you only a few days ago and I am following you now. I had a similar analysis on Brent Oil for the last 2 months. Your fundamental cues and analytical logic regarding OIL and USD/CAD makes lots of sense. Those are the primary fields I am interested as well. Regards and looking forward for more exchange.
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Hi mate.. Do you thing (iv) has finished??
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Possibly - but I would prefer deeper levels. This has been a VERY VERY shallow retracement thus far. Plus, you have the 1.2800-1.2820 false breakout zone ahead of us. Entering prematurely creates a lower probability trade. We haven't broken the grey resistance line yet.

I'm looking for a small degree 5 wave impulsive move higher, followed by a 3 wave downward move to improve our bullish entry. If we immediately move up to the grey line now, that might be our 5 waves higher from this morning.

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UPDATE: With CAD employment a snoozer - still looking for a resolution to wave iv. Key levels in the original post are still on watch.

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Cfsqbwn. JWagnerFXTrader
It break down trendline short term..
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Cfsqbwn. Cfsqbwn.
false breakout...
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Yes, still waiting for a 5 wave move higher followed by 3 waves lower. Notice how in the yellow boxes below they are just 3 waves up. Until we get the 5-3, we wait.

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This move higher into 1.2800 is not looking real clean right now. We hit the false breakout zone without a clean impulse...be mindful that a dip to 1.2600 is still possible under the original chart pattern.
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IvanLabrie PRO JWagnerFXTrader
I guess rates tomorrow will resolve this 4th.
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