This morning, a triangle came to light that unlocked some wave relationships that are causing me to change my tune on Oil . (For those who attended the US Opening Bell webinar this morning, I was Oil . In light of seeing this triangle below, I am changing my tune to .)
When I changed the time frame of chart, the triangle in late April was exposed. When drawing the 2-4 trend channel based on blue ‘iv’ triangle in late April , it created an incredibly clean trend channel (red channel). These trend channels are useful for determining ending points for the fifth waves, in this case blue ‘v’.
This is important for a couple of reasons. First, notice how prices couldn’t penetrate the mid-line on May 6 (the dotted red line). This is quite . The opposing end of the trend channel is the typical stopping point, yet in this case it couldn’t get half way there!
Secondly, this upward push could be the end of circle ‘iv’. Fourth waves typically retrace about 38% of its third wave. In this case, the 38% retracement level was at 63.50 and prices came very close to this level.
Therefore, with a very ending wave to the upward push that exhausted near an important fib level, we elevate the counts in the green notes. Both counts in the green box call for a move below 45.
If you like, give a thumbs up and follow. Feel free to share your EW counts on Oil as well.
You are right, I made recount and checked with EW website, they count different with both you and me here is the link http://www.elliottwave.com/images/freeupdates/image/mw%2007-05-2015oil.png
I am not following USDCAD at all, can't share the count though but you are right I should as it can give some clear clues, thanks for this hint.
You comparative chart of oil vs cad convinced me to follow the fx cross either.
Canadian's purchase oil at the retail pump mostly based on Brent. Producers sell oil more heavily weighted on WTI (and West Canada Select). Therefore, if WTI cannot keep up with Brent, CAD likely suffers. On the flip side, if WTI outpaces Brent, CAD may outperform.
Here's a recent chart of that comparison. Some food for thought.